Can Trump Really End the War in Ukraine?

Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election raised immediate questions and concerns in Ukraine amid its war with Russia. Trump has been critical of the Biden administration’s strong support for Kyiv and has expressed opposition to further U.S. aid. But if U.S. assistance dried up, Ukraine would struggle to sustain its forces in a fight against Russia, which has far more resources and manpower.

It’s a critical moment for Ukraine, as Russia continues to make advances in the eastern part of the country and as the war becomes more global in scope—with North Korean forces recently joining the fight on Moscow’s behalf.

Meanwhile, Georgians are facing police violence as they demonstrate against a government widely perceived as pro-Russian, in events reminiscent of Ukraine’s Euromaidan protests a decade ago. Russia also just lost an ally in Syria after a blistering rebel offensive toppled President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Foreign Policy spoke with Oleksandra Matviichuk, a Ukrainian human rights defender who heads the Nobel Peace Prize-winning Center for Civil Liberties in Kyiv, about the potential dynamic between Kyiv and Washington under Trump, what Assad’s collapse means for Moscow and its allies, and why the situation in Georgia hits close to home for Ukraine.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

Foreign Policy: Trump has said he can end the war in Ukraine in “24 hours” but hasn’t elaborated on how he would accomplish this. He recently called for an immediate cease-fire in Ukraine and is pushing for negotiations to begin. Trump has also signaled that Ukraine could receive less aid from the United States once he’s back in the White House. Are you more concerned or hopeful about how Trump will approach relations with Kyiv during his second term?

Oleksandra Matviichuk: It’s very difficult for me to predict the policy of a new administration. But I hope that we will see the implementation of [former U.S. President Ronald] Reagan’s principle of peace through strength. The problems of the current situation come from only Russia being proactive all these years. Russia did something horrible, then pushed the entire international community to reckon with it. And the international community was always reactive and played [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s game. Now is the time to start being proactive, stop playing by Putin’s rules, and move toward peace through strength.

FP: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appears to be opening up to the idea of temporarily ceding territory to bring a halt to the fighting with Russia, but only if Ukraine is granted NATO membership. Russia strongly opposes Ukraine joining the alliance, and Putin doesn’t seem especially eager to negotiate. Is a cease-fire possible in the near future, or do too many obstacles remain?

OM: We need to discuss what really matters and not what Russia wants. This war started not in February 2022, but in February 2014. To stop Ukraine from becoming a genuine democracy, Russia invaded [and] occupied Crimea [as well as] part of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, and two years ago extended the war with a large-scale invasion.

Putin is not afraid of NATO. He’s afraid of the idea of freedom coming closer to Russia’s border. What I want us to discuss and what Russia doesn’t want us to discuss is the real goal of Putin. Russia doesn’t just want one part of Ukraine’s land. Putin wants to destroy and occupy the whole country and to forcibly restore the Russian empire. If Putin isn’t stopped in Ukraine, he’ll go further.

We must take Putin’s real intent very seriously as we discuss the peace process and how to end Russia’s war against Ukraine. In this regard, the main issue is security guarantees for Ukraine to prevent future Russian aggression. The security guarantees have to be so serious for Russia that it will not just postpone the implementation of Putin’s goal, but make it impossible.

FP: Zelensky says that Ukraine needs a “just and robust peace, that Russians will not destroy within a few years.” What would a just and robust peace look like? You’ve spoken about security guarantees, but what other important aspects would there need to be?

OM: The rights of people who live in occupied territories, the return of abducted Ukrainian children, the release of all illegally detained civilians, and an end to political persecution must all be points of discussion.

The hell Ukraine now faces is a result of the total impunity Russia has enjoyed for decades. Russian troops committed horrible crimes in Chechnya, Moldova, Georgia, Mali, Libya, Syria, and other countries worldwide. They have never been punished. They believe they can do whatever they want. In this situation, justice is a precondition to sustainable peace in our part of the world, where Russia for decades has viewed war as a tool to achieve its geopolitical goals.

We are fighting for justice, and we’re not just fighting for people in Ukraine—we are fighting to prevent Russia from attacking other nations.

FP: Has there been any progress made in terms of returning these Ukrainian children home from Russia?

OM: This is a very sensitive problem for Ukrainian society. It’s a very systematic and deliberate policy of Moscow. Russia took Ukrainian children to Russia, put them in education camps, and told them that they’re not Ukrainian children but Russian children.

While Ukrainian authorities identified up to 20,000 of Ukrainian children being illegally deported, only about 500 children have been returned.

An international coalition was created, which includes the United States, to help bring the kids back. To be more successful, we have to invite more countries to this international coalition from Africa and Latin America. While they can be unsupportive and take more neutral positions on the Russian war against Ukraine, they can’t be neutral to human pain and human suffering. They can use their connections with Russia to help Ukraine solve this humanitarian problem and return Ukrainian children.

There are two urgent, alarming problems regarding these children. Today they are children, but tomorrow they’re adults. And tomorrow they will join the Russian army to fight against Ukraine, which is both illegal and immoral. Second, children are much more vulnerable to militarization and indoctrination. We must take decisive actions.

FP: You’ve warned of a growing authoritarian partnership among Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China. Bashar al-Assad, a close ally of Russia and Iran, just fell from power. Does Assad’s demise serve as a warning sign for other authoritarians?

OM: You’re totally right. I live in Kyiv, and my native city is constantly being shelled, not just by Russian rockets, but also by Iranian drones. China helps Russia circumvent sanctions and improve technologies critical to warfare. North Korea sent Russia more than a million artillery shells and recently sent their troops to Russia. Before Assad was crushed, he voted for Russia in the United Nations General Assembly. We are dealing with the formation of an entire authoritarian bloc. All of these regimes have the same worldview.

For Russia and for its authoritarian allies, Ukraine is not just a goal—it’s a tool to break the international order, to dictate rules to the entire international community, and even forcibly change internationally recognized borders.

And what lessons can be learned from the situation in Syria? First, Russia is not as strong as it pretends. Second, Russia is not a reliable partner. They left Assad alone. They broke their internal agreements with the Assad regime.

FP: How concerned are you about the current situation in Georgia? Is it fair to compare what’s happening there to Ukraine’s recent history? How much is Russia to blame for what we’re seeing, and what can be done to help the pro-democracy movement in Georgia?

OM: We Ukrainians are in full solidarity with the people of Georgia in their fight for freedom, democracy, and human dignity. We had the same story just 11 years ago. Millions of people in Ukraine also stood against a pro-Russian, corrupt, and authoritarian regime that stopped our European Union integration process. It’s the same pattern. People in Ukraine also took to the streets for a chance to build a country where the rights of everybody are protected, the government is held accountable, the judiciary is independent, and police do not beat students who are peacefully demonstrating. And we paid the highest price for this because the pro-Russian government engaged in large-scale, systematic repression.

I know what I’m talking about because I was the coordinator of the Euromaidan SOS initiative. We had thousands [of people] working 24 hours a day to provide legal and other kinds of assistance to persecuted protesters across the country. Every day, hundreds and hundreds of people were beaten, arrested, tortured, and faced fabricated criminal charges. So, I understand how difficult the path for freedom and democracy is right now for people in Georgia.

The international community needs to focus on their fight. It’s not just a moral obligation. We live in a world where 80 percent of people are in not free or partially free societies, which means that we are losing freedom in our world [and] that the Georgian people’s fight for their freedom and democracy will define our common future in a world where we’re losing freedom.