Dr. Alvaro Lario

Reuters [excerpt]; President #XiJinping arrived in #Serbia on Tuesday evening escorted by MIG-29 jets in a tightly secured visit coinciding with the 25th anniversary of the #NATO bombing of #China's embassy in which three Chinese journalists were killed. Belgrade, after France, is the second stop on Xi's first visit to #Europe in five years, which also includes Hungary. In Serbia, which is seen as China's most important partner in the Balkans, Xi is expected to discuss China´s multi-billion #investment in the country and possible new deals. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and government officials welcomed Xi at the Belgrade airport, where he was greeted by a #military guard of honor and folk dancers. The two leaders will hold a meeting on Wednesday. On May 7, 1999, 20 Chinese nationals were wounded in the NATO attack, which prompted outrage in China and an apology from then U.S. President Bill Clinton. The embassy was hit during a campaign against the then Yugoslavia to force late Serbian strongman Slobodan Milosevic to end a crackdown on ethnic Albanians in Kosovo. "The Chinese people appreciate the peace but will never allow that a historic tragedy repeats itself," Xi said in an opinion article in the daily Politika on Tuesday. "The friendship between China and Serbia which is soaked in blood that the two peoples spilled together has become a joint memory of the two peoples and will encourage both parties to make together huge steps forward," Xi said. The Belgrade streets were decorated with Chinese flags and placards as thousands of police officers were deployed to secure Xi and his 400-member entourage, the highest-level visit by a foreign leader in years. IRONCLAD FRIENDSHIP Xi is visiting Serbia after France, where President Emmanuel Macron and EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen pressed him to ensure more balanced trade with Europe and use his influence on Russia to end the war in Ukraine. During his first visit to Belgrade in 2016, the two countries signed a strategic partnership. Last year, Vucic signed 18 agreements with Xi in Beijing, including a free trade deal that should become operational in July. Both leaders insist on an ironclad partnership between their countries. Along with Hungary, which is Xi´s next stop, Serbia is Europe's firmest supporter of China’s #BeltandRoad Initiative. China runs mines and factories across Serbia and has lent billions for roads, bridges and new facilities, becoming Serbia's key partner in much-needed #infrastructure development. Observers say Xi's choice of Serbia and Hungary is designed to pull closer two European countries that are pro-Russia and large recipients of Chinese investment. Serbia’s Western partners view the country as a Chinese hub at the gateway to the #EU. #news #geopolitics

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Mario Draghi's recent report on "The Future of European Competitiveness" has highlighted substantial concerns about the ability of the EU to increase its investment in defense capacity. "The previous global paradigm is fading. The era of rapid world trade growth looks to have passed, with EU companies facing both greater competition from abroad and lower access to overseas markets. Europe has abruptly lost its most important supplier of energy, Russia. All the while, geopolitical stability is waning, and our dependencies have turned out to be vulnerabilities." The report estimates that investment needed in Europe would have to rise to around 5% of GDP annually, compared to investments by the Marshall Plan in 1948-51 which amounted to around 1-2% GDP. All while Europe's largest economy in Germany is experiencing a rapid deindustrialization. Recommendations: 1. "Europe must profoundly refocus its collective efforts on closing the innovation gap with the US and China, especially in advanced technologies." 2. "The second area for action is a joint plan for decarbonisation and competitiveness." 3. "The third area for action is increasing security and reducing dependencies." Read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/eBQ5_QkY 

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Economic Diversification in Africa: How and Why It Matters Many African countries have placed economic diversification high on the policy agenda, yet they first need to define what it means in their specific structural and socioeconomic contexts https://lnkd.in/eFxE65Hn

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Mutual Prosperity: The Africa-Europe Nexus This comprehensive analysis delves into the rich historical ties and modern-day dynamics between Africa and Europe, offering readers in-depth insights into trade, investment, and sustainable development across both continents. The paper explores key areas including: • Economic Partnerships: Discover how Africa’s growing market and resources present significant opportunities for European industries, from agriculture to renewable energy. • Political and Security Cooperation: Understand the importance of collaboration in ensuring regional stability, combating terrorism, and managing migration. • Environmental Sustainability: Learn how Africa and Europe are working together to address climate change, promote green energy, and safeguard biodiversity. • Cultural and Social Ties: Explore the role of education, cultural exchanges, and the African diaspora in strengthening mutual understanding and cooperation. • Future Prospects: Examine potential scenarios for deepening strategic partnerships and shaping global policies through Africa-Europe collaboration.

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Here is an update on the economic and poverty dynamics in #Eswatini, as outlined in The World Bank’s recent Macro Poverty Outlook (https://lnkd.in/dnFw8WTb) Economic Overview: Eswatini's GDP for 2023 stands at approximately $4.6 billion, with a GDP per capita of $3,822.9, serving a population of 1.2 million (as of 2023). Despite these figures, the country faces significant economic challenges: ➡️ Poverty Rates: The international poverty rate, measured at $2.15 a day, stands at 36.1%. The rates for lower middle-income ($3.65 a day) and upper middle-income ($6.85 a day) thresholds are 58.0% and 78.1%, respectively. ➡️ Income Inequality: The Gini index, at 54.6, highlights a substantial income disparity among the population. ➡️ Economic Growth: Projected real GDP growth for 2024 is anticipated to be 4.6%, driven by heightened exports and public spending, supported by an increase in Southern African Customs Union (SACU) revenues. However, vulnerabilities persist due to high public expenditure arrears and a heavy reliance on volatile SACU revenues. ➡️ Unemployment Rate: Eswatini lags behind comparable lower middle-income countries, with unemployment reaching a record high of 33.3% in 2021. Vulnerabilities and Structural Challenges: Eswatini’s economic stability is affected by high public expenditure arrears and an over-reliance on the fluctuating SACU revenues. Structural impediments over the past few decades have restricted growth, with key challenges in the business environment, fiscal policy, and the management of state-owned enterprises.   Strategic Interventions Needed to Address High Poverty and Inequality Rates: Transitioning from a state-driven to a private-sector-led growth model is essential. Recent initiatives like the SACU Stabilization Fund and the potential rollout of an Integrated Financial Management Information System (IFMIS) are critical steps toward improving fiscal management and reducing poverty and inequality. Marko Kwaramba #Economy #EconomicGrowth #Poverty #PovertyReduction #PublicPolicy #SocialDevelopment #StructuralReform

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Maybe they should reform the EU..., maybe they should have kept it smaller. But I also think many believe it's too late and we're well beyond the red line... --- France goes to the polls at the end of June to elect a new parliament and government after President Macron called snap elections in the wake of his party's drubbing in the EU elections. The new parliament could be dominated by eurosceptic parties from the left and right, who are openly hostile to Brussels. Fabrice Grimal is a passionate advocate of Frexit and a former Yellow Vest leader, who stood for election to the European Parliament as part of the "We the People" (NLP) bloc. - He argues that there is potentially enough public support to secure a victory for Frexit, but fears a government led by Marine Le Pen's National Rally will lack the courage to call a referendum. "They are cowards," he said. "They think that they must follow the people and the people is not ready yet. "But in the last poll, we have Frexit supported by a big third of the French, with another big third saying it's true that there are too many problems with the EU but it's complicated to go out and only the last third saying I like the EU even if it's not perfect. "So they think there is only one third for Frexit but there are potentially two thirds for it - if we convince people, if we show them that they are not to be afraid of leaving the EU." - Mr Grimal explained there were three main reasons why France needed to get out of the EU and take control of its own destiny. "The first one is belonging to the euro," he said. "We don't have our own money. We cannot adjust our money. We cannot adjust our interest rates. The French central bank is useless. The euro is responsible for a lot of unemployment. - "The next one is a migration. We want to manage our own borders and the next thing is our ability to have a real foreign policy again. "Not only about European Union. We want the ability to have a real foreign policy, beginning with the Ukraine conflict, finding a solution, finding a ceasefire in negotiations, whereas everybody else in the EU is pushing forward to war, selling arms, sending training troops and things like that." https://lnkd.in/gS-ZTq_W

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EU plans €438M for democracy, economics and culture research in 2025 In response to rising global authoritarianism and populist movements, the European Union is doubling down on efforts to safeguard democracy through robust research initiatives. A leaked document from the EU’s 2025 #social #sciences #research #programme reveals #plans to #allocate €438 million to explore key factors driving authoritarian appeal and threats to #democratic #governance. At the heart of this programme are calls to address critical issues like #disinformation, #political #polarization, and #radicalization. With a dedicated €10.5 million research fund under #Cluster #2, the EU will examine “The Autocratic Appeal” to uncover why #autocratic #governance is gaining momentum—even within #stable #democracies. While earlier Framework Programmes did fund cultural and social research, in Horizon Europe it has special emphasis, with a series of social sciences projects gathered in a dedicated cluster. These include research on democratic governance, cultural heritage and social inclusion. Some MEPs pressed commissioner designate for research, Ekaterina Zaharieva in her hearing in the Parliament this week, to insulate Horizon Europe funding from geopolitical pressures and in particular dual-use research. Notably, the EU's 2025 budget for democratic research represents a 160.7% increase since 2021, underscoring the urgency felt by European leaders as the continent faces rising far-right and populist sentiment, amplified by #geopolitical #conflicts and shifting political dynamics, including the recent re-election of #Donald #Trump. The EU #Commission’s democratic governance programme aims to provide policymakers with actionable insights to build resilience, restore public trust in democratic institutions, and prevent the spread of extremism. With the rise of authoritarianism threatening global freedoms—as reported by Freedom House’s 2024 findings—the EU’s investment reflects a crucial commitment to reversing the “long democratic recession.” In these challenging times, bolstering our understanding of democracy's vulnerabilities is essential. As the EU invests in insights, it's equipping leaders to stand strong in the face of these global shifts. #Democracy #EUResearch #Authoritarianism #HorizonEurope #PublicPolicy #TrustInDemocracy #SocialSciences #FutureOfEurope #Funding https://lnkd.in/dS57QX5c

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In the elections to the European Parliament, more than 360 million citizens were called upon to elect 720 MEPs from 27 Member States to Brussels and Strasbourg. The voter turnout was – as five years ago – 51 percent. And not surprisingly, Europe has now finally moved to the right. This trend had been of course predicted for the European Union, which has had to cope with a series of serious crises in recent years. Accordingly, conservative and right-wing parties in particular were gaining ground across Europe, focusing on security, less ecologically regulated economic policy and stricter asylum rules. Green parties, which were still among the big winners in 2019 under the impression of the climate crisis in many member states, are plummeting five years later. The social democratic party group (S&D) lost ground, but remains in second place. The liberal Renew Europe group and the Greens lose significantly. The ECR and the ID parliamentary group, in which the national-conservative to right-wing extremist parties gather, became stronger. The far-left faction lost slightly. But there were some Member States like Finland were the far-leftists gained significantly. Among the biggest winners of the European election was the Rassemblement national (RN), France's strongest opposition party, whose figurehead Marine Le Pen inflicted an ignominious defeat on French President Emmanuel Macron. With 31.5 percent, the RN received more than twice as many votes as Macron's list. The European Conservative reported that voter turnout for instance in Germany was the highest since European elections were first held in 1979 at 64.8%. There big winners were two anti-establishment, anti-globalist parties, the right-wing AfD and the left-wing Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW). Only five months before the US elections, the American right feels strengthened. The energized mood in the EU is seen as confirmation of Donald Trump's chances of a second term. The shift to the right in Europe could have an impact on the political dynamics of the election campaign in the USA. Therefore, America's right-wing conservatives cheered the result of the EU elections after right-wing parties made gains, some of them significantly. Meanwhile, America's right-wing conservatives are working to network with European counterparts. For the past two years, CPAC has been expanding into Hungary, with conservative activists and representatives from the United States meeting at the annual conference. The planning of an agenda for a Trump-2 administration is now in full swing. This includes enhancing connections with like-minded people outside the United States - and directly impacting our European values and the future of our next generations. Check out the European Conservative report "Germany: AfD Are the Big Winners—Especially Among Workers and Youth" (Zoltán Kottász - June 10, 2024) https://lnkd.in/dSbjHrgU #europeanelections #ecr #id #CPAC #europeanconservative

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How is the G7 going to meet its just announced ambition to support "Energy for Growth" in Africa? It says: "The initiative will engage with governments, the private sector, financial institutions, multilateral development banks, and community groups. It will partner with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the International Energy Agency (IEA). It will also coordinate with existing programmes, to ensure complementarity and avoid duplications, and will operate in close coordination with the G7 Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment." What does it mean? Anything new here? Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL) CEO Damilola Ogunbiyi wrote this piece about what needs to be done: https://lnkd.in/ezxdF4vj A few additional thoughts: 💡 MDBs and DFIs need to provide lower or below cost financing. These institutions exist to promote development outcomes, not to make money. Most deals will make money, but they need to adjust their pricing given that the cost of capital today in the markets with the most need is much higher than it was a few years ago. 💡 USAID and the U.S. government need to step up on Power Africa already. President Obama committed $300m/year for 5 years at his Africa Leader's Summit in 2016. Only one tranche was ever disbursed. Fulfill that pledge. It's shameful to think we can light and power a continent for anything less than that. 💡 To keep the cost of electricity down for the next 20 years, MDBs and DFIs should take on more of the risk of local currency depreciation. They typically finance in dollars. Financing in local currency for 20 years would usually mean they lose money. At least share the currency risk. That's what grant money's for. 💡 Think regionally and not just locally. To accelerate the energy transition in Africa, countries that don't have base load power from hydropower and geothermal power need to buy it from their neighbors. That requires more robust cross-border transmission infrastructure and power trading. One reason that renewable energy hasn't scaled in sub-Saharan Africa is that many countries do not have enough base load power to support wind and solar. If DFIs, MDBs, philanthropies and governments do not facilitate trading or developing more renewable base load power, gas will be necessary. The G7 knows this. That's why G7 countries didn't think twice about shoring up gas supplies for themselves from others when Russia invaded Ukraine. Last week, I shared a study that said that it's in the G7's financial interest to subsidize the cost of the energy transition for emerging markets and developing economies. To the #G7: Thank you for the commitment. Please act on the announcement. We know what needs to be done. The World Bank IFC - International Finance Corporation U.S. International Development Finance Corporation British International Investment Todd Moss

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Yes, but … let us clarify one crucial point: The Sovereign Order of Malta (Sovereign Military Hospitaller Order of Saint John of Jerusalem of Rhodes and of Malta) is a sovereign entity having international public law subjectivity. Exactly like the Holy See. As such, the Order enjoys Pernament Observer status at the UN (like the Holy See) and maintains diplomatic relations with 113 States and the European Union. Also, the Order exists geographically in three extraterritorial compounds: two in Rome and one in La Valletta (capital of the Republic of Malta).

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The #AfricanDevelopmentFund (ADF) will hold its Mid-Term Review (MTR) in Benin this week. At #ADF16MTR, Bank Management will report on progress made under #ADF16, focusing on two strategic operational priorities: developing sustainable, climate-resilient, quality infrastructure; and strengthening governance, capacity building, and sustainable debt management in recipient countries.   More on the concessional lending window of the African Development Bank Group: adf.afdb.org

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By 2050 this planet will have a forecasted 10 billion residents. Africa will represent 25% of our global population. Some 60% plus will be under 25 years of age. Between now and 2050 Africa’s population will near double. With continued migration to cities rising unabated as people look for jobs the burden on accessible and affordable housing will outstrip forecasted demand without a major commitment starting now by Governments on an international, regional and local level partnering with financial markets, private investors and multilateral development banks. Education, health care and infrastructure for social mobility will each and collectively need to be expanded and developed to keep pace with the African continent’s needs. The work of #UNHabitat is a game changer in working in bringing together a global coalition in addressing the issues and working to define and refine these needs. The Quality of Life Initiative is a key example. We at the #SustainableCitiesandCommunitiesFoundation are working to support these noble efforts.

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This joint press statement between Italy and the African Development Bank Group, released at the close of this year's G7 summit, announces four joint initiatives to support the implementation of Italy’s Mattei Plan for Africa and Rome Process on Migration and Development agenda. They include the establishment of a Multi-donor Special Fund, an Italy-AfDB co-financing arrangement and trust fund for joint projects, a common platform to promote private sector investments, and a $45 million pledge from Italy for the Alliance for Green Infrastructure in Africa, to support investment in green infrastructure across Africa. The ideal for these initiatives is to deliver impactful development and economic opportunities on the continent in order to reduce drivers of migration. https://lnkd.in/dRsXscHj #afdb #jointstatement #matteiplan #africaninvestment #g72024 #g7summit

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By its dynamic demography and immense natural resources, Africa is destined to play a key role in shaping the future of the global economy marked by major trends including the twin transition. To unleash the Continent's full economic development potential, the AfCFTA came to facilitate trade and investment with the hope of generating incomes and creating jobs, thus lifting up from poverty large swaths of society. As the host country of the IATF - Intra-African Trade Fair 2025, Algeria, capitalizing on its comparative advantages, is committed more than ever to actively contributing to the development and prosperity of Africa. To participate in the webinar below organized by tralac | Trade Law Centre with the support of Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH, that could not have been timelier, register on https://bit.ly/3xdJST5 Alicia FigueroaJohannes LaeppleAndreas GarbadeXaver Keller GIZ AlgeriaAbdel-Basset Boulelouah Dan CorkFella BoutiUnion for the MediterraneanYacine CHIKHARPNUD AlgérieSalima Hebbache StevenZaki HanedZiad R.NesrineRoia Zenata

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Statement on the outcome of #COP29 and the new finance goal (#NCQG) by IMAL's Iskander Erzini Vernoit, published in African Arguments alongside comments from other Africans engaged in the discussions: "Baku was a betrayal of the world’s vulnerable, of the Paris Agreement, and of common sense. The COP29 decision on the new finance goal represents a staggering lack of imagination and solidarity from the Global North. "$300 billion per year as a mobilisation goal for 2035 would be a laughable joke, except it is deadly serious. People will lose their lives as a result of the unwillingness to take tough political decisions at COP29. According to some analyses, developing countries easily require over $1 trillion per year in grant-equivalent terms to equitably address adaptation and loss and damage alone, not counting mitigation and energy transition. This $300 billion, like the $100 billion goal it replaces, will likely be largely non-concessional loans. Meanwhile, the North’s subsidies for wars and fossil fuels amount to trillions per year. "This decision jeopardises the delivery of the aims of the Paris Agreement and UN Framework Convention, throwing national climate target-setting and delivery into deep uncertainty. "Amid rushed non-transparent processes, developed countries weaponised the fears of developing countries, who felt held hostage to the need to agree something before the Trump administration takes office. However, it didn’t have to be this way. The short-sighted inability to challenge the Global North’s un-ambition will likely be regretted, as will the COP Presidencies Troika’s insistence on closing any deal regardless of its contents. "Nevertheless, the fight against catastrophic climate change must move forward, in greater solidarity with those threatened, to become more clear-eyed about the problems and solutions, more unified and more politically assertive than before." 🔗 https://lnkd.in/eMdhdcum

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