Welcome from the NCA's Director General Title

I wrote last year that serious and organised crime (SOC) causes more harm, to more people, more often than any other national security threat. Much has changed since then, yet this uncomfortable fact remains true. SOC continues to threaten our security, our economic prosperity, and the safety of the public we serve: no parts of society are immune to the efforts of organised crime gangs, cybercriminals, fraudsters, or those who sexually abuse children.

To tackle these offenders and reduce the threats they pose, we must first understand them, and that is the purpose of this assessment. The National Strategic Assessment of Serious and Organised Crime 2024 is a comprehensive baseline of the threat, drawing on intelligence and analysis from across law enforcement and other partner organisations. I am grateful to everyone who has contributed. It looks at how the threat has evolved since the NCA’s creation in 2013, focuses specifically on the changes over the last year, and considers the societal trends that will affect SOC over the next five years.

Looking back, it is striking that while overall crime figures have fallen over the last decade, the scale of and harm from SOC has increased, with SOC offending consequently making up a significantly higher proportion of all offending. This is in part due to drugs becoming cheaper, more potent, and thus more dangerous. Organised crime has also become more international, better networked and technically adept. But the main factor has been the societal shift to living more of our lives online, which criminals have exploited in the form of cybercrime, fraud, and child sexual abuse.

The trends of the last decade have largely repeated themselves over the last year. In 2023, we saw marked increases in the threat and harm from drugs, child sexual abuse, and cybercrime, and smaller increases in money laundering and organised acquisitive crime. We assess that the threat reduced in three areas. In fraud, despite resilient high-harm fraud, total volumes have come down, largely due to industry counter-measures. In firearms, discharges are on a downward trend, and law enforcement and regulatory action has made it harder to source weapons. And in organised immigration crime, the spike of small boat arrivals in 2022 was not repeated in 2023. Progress in each of these areas is, of course, fragile and criminals will seek to reverse our gains as we have already seen with small boats.

The changing threat, rapidly evolving technology, and the global context mean that our mission to protect the public is more challenging than ten years ago. In that time, the system as a whole has increased in maturity and understanding, works better together, and has evolved to tackle new challenges. It takes a network to defeat a network, so the only way we can tackle the threat is collectively, both domestically and with our international partners. I am confident this assessment provides the baseline to enable us to do just that.

Graeme Biggar CBE

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What is Serious and Organised Crime?

Serious and organised crime (SOC) is defined as individuals planning, coordinating, and committing serious offences, whether individually, in groups and/or as part of transnational networks. 

The NCA leads the operational response to serious and organised crime, working with partners across law enforcement, government, industry, and beyond. Our overall goal of crime reduction requires us collectively to focus on preventing crime, and protecting potential victims, as well as on disrupting and dismantling organised crime groups.

In 2023, the Director General of the NCA directed the agency to focus upstream (for example, against criminal bosses and enablers), overseas, and online where the NCA’s unique capabilities can have the most impact. 

​The Threats

Serious and organised crime is split into the following threat areas:

Cross-Cutting Threat Enablers

​The threats cannot be considered in isolation and it is increasingly important to target cross-cutting enablers that enhance offenders’ abilities to conduct their criminal activities. Those explored in this assessment are:

The 2024 National Strategic Assessment is based on data and analysis covering the 2023 reporting period.

Probability and Uncertainty

Throughout the National Strategic Assessment, the ‘probability yardstick’ (as defined by the Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment) has been used to ensure consistency across the different threats and themes when assessing probability.

The following defines the probability ranges considered when such language is used:

Acknowledgements

The NCA would like to acknowledge the support offered by many partners in the preparation of this assessment. The Agency’s partners include, but are not limited to:

  • law enforcement and criminal justice bodies, including the police forces of England and Wales, Police Scotland, Police Service of Northern Ireland, National Ballistics Intelligence Service, HM Revenue and Customs, the Serious Fraud Office, Border Force, Immigration Enforcement, HM Prison and Probation Service, and the Crown Prosecution Service;
  • UK intelligence community, including the National Cyber Security Centre; 
  • HM Government, including the Home Office, Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, Cabinet Office, and HM Treasury; 
  • Overseas law enforcement agencies and organisations such as Europol and Interpol;
  • the academic, private, and third sectors, including research from universities, charities,
    non-governmental organisations, banks and other financial institutions, communication service providers and technology companies; 
  • regulatory and professional bodies, such as the Financial Conduct Authority and Ofcom; and
  • Opal, the national police unit focused on the collation, coordination and dissemination of intelligence relating to serious organised acquisitive crime, who authored the OAC section of this product.