One of the big questions about the 2020 Oscars is whether or not there will be a split between the winners of Best Picture and Best Director, as we’ve seen in three of the last four years. Before the academy reintroduced the preferential ballot for Best Picture in 2010, such divides were fairly rare. Now, they are the rule rather than the exception at the Academy Awards. (Scroll down for the most up-to-date 2020 Oscars predictions for Best Director.)
Why is this?
Unlike every other Oscar category, which are decided by a popular vote, the winner of the Best Picture award is determined by a weighted ballot. Voters rank their choices from first to last. If one nominee garners more than 50% of the first place vote, it automatically wins. If, however, no nominee can meet that threshold, the film with the fewest first place votes gets eliminated, with its ballot getting reapportioned to the second place choice. This process continues until one nominee reaches 50% plus one vote. The goal, says the academy, is to award the top Oscar to a consensus choice.
So while Ang Lee (“Life of Pi”), Alfonso Cuaron (“Gravity”), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (“The Revenant”), Damien Chazelle (“La La Land”) and Cuaron again (“Roma”), all won the Best Director Oscar, their films lost to “Argo” (2013), “12 Years a Slave” (2014), “Spotlight” (2016), “Moonlight” (2017) and “Green Book” (2019) respectively.
Given the two different voting systems, it’s easy to understand how this can happen. Indeed, this was a fairly common phenomenon between 1934 and 1945, when Best Picture was first determined by a preferential ballot. “Mutiny on the Bounty” (1936), “The Great Ziegfeld” (1937), “The Life of Emile Zola” (1938), and “Rebecca” (1941) all won Best Picture but their helmers lost to “The Informer” (John Ford), “Mr. Deeds Goes to Town” (Frank Capra), “The Awful Truth” (Leo McCarey) and “The Grapes of Wrath” (Ford) respectively.
Inarritu also won Best Director for a film that took the top Academy Award: “Birdman” (2015). As with “The Revenant,” this too was a bravura directorial achievement and had strong support throughout the creative categories. Indeed, six of the last sevenfilms that won Oscars for helming also took home the lensing prize. When it comes to Best Director, bigger is better. So, who is making that kind of movie this year?
UPDATED: February 9, 2020
Please note: To read full descriptions of each film, check out our Best Picture predictions.
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Leading Contenders
Sam Mendes, “1917” (Universal – December 25)
Bong Joon-ho, “Parasite” (Neon – October 11)
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Strong Contenders
Martin Scorsese, “The Irishman” (Netflix – November 1; streams Nov. 27)
Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” (Sony – July 26)
SEE 2020 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture
Possible Contenders
Todd Phillips, “Joker” (Warner Bros. – October 4)
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Click on the linked categories below to read our previews of each of these races.
Best Actor | Best Actress | Best Supporting Actor | Best Supporting Actress
The Personal History of David Copperfield and The Goldfinch seem to be of the same gendre of film, a biopic overtine in lush or life-like surroundings.
So both should be leading contenders unless of course the props of the David Copperfield film may not be that rich – mabye because it is set in 19th crntury recounting the struggles of a person of a lower strata in the beginning in that era?
Typing error :
“……overtime…..”
“The Goldfinch” is being raked over the coals by the critics right now, I’m afraid, and it doesn’t look like that’ll be changing, so I think it’s Oscar campaign has just ended.
Greta Gerwig, “Little Women” (Sony – December 25)
Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” (Sony – July 26)
Martin Scorsese, “The Irishman” (Netflix – Fall)
Tom Hooper, “Cats” (Universal – December 20)
Joe Wright, “The Woman in the Window” (Fox 2000 – October 4)
The release date of “The Woman in the Window” actually has been changed to May 15, 2020.
Elfar Adalsteins for End of Sentence.
Pedro Almodóvar, “Pain & Glory”
Martin Scorsese, “The Irishman”
James Mangold, “Ford v. Ferrari”
Fernando Meirelles, “The Pope”
Bill Condon, “The Good Liar”
Dexter Fletcher, “Rocketman”
Lulu Wang, “The Farewell”
What??? Ang Lee for Gemini man is ahead of Sam Mendes for 1917? Really? Gemini man will be a bomb.
Those three tiers are listed in alphabetical order.
If 1917 is all a long take, Sam Mendes will probably win.
If ‘The Irishman” sees Martin Scorcese at his best since “Good Fellas/Casino” stylings, the Academy might not be able to resist awarding him a deserved 2nd Oscar for Directing. He is still wildly respected and one of the most consistent nominated older Directors’ working today besides Clint Eastwood/Steven Spielberg/Terrence Malick/of a certain era. If his picture is amazing, then I feel we could see a groundswell of support by the Director’s Branch to award him once more!
It’s probably too soon but what about Clint Eastwood for The Ballad of Richard Jewell ?
He is in the conversation now Hocine.
It seems like Sam Mendes (and The Deakins) should be in on ambition alone.
A Hidden Life is BEAUTIFULLY directed. Terrence Malick’s magnum opus. Jojo Rabbit by Taika Waititi is just as good.
For this award however, Oscar voters tend to juggle between the factors of how intricate and beautifllu interwoven the film elements are (A Hidden Life, Jojo Rabbit) and whether the show speaks to the audience in a direct personal note (Jojo Rabbit).
So Jojo Rabbit should win.
“……..beautifully interwoven………….”
I better see a female or two get nominated
The Last Black Man in San Francisco should be considered at least under Possible Contenders.
No, it should be put under Strong Contenders.
Olivia Wilde -Booksmart
Please no – not “ The Irishman”. Surely we have had enough of Mr Scorsese and co doing their gangster thing through the years! “ Goodfellas in Ireland” would be a better title …..