𝗗𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝗶𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗮𝗿 𝘁𝗼 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗻 𝗦𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱-𝗧𝗶𝗲𝗿 𝗙𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗯𝗮𝗹𝗹: 𝗠𝗮𝗷𝗼𝗿 𝗟𝗲𝗮𝗴𝘂𝗲 𝗦𝗼𝗰𝗰𝗲𝗿 𝗔𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗶𝗻 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁
Earlier this week, I shared an evaluation of Major League Soccer's (MLS) claim of being the world's second-best attended football league, surpassing leagues like the Bundesliga in absolute attendance numbers. While true in sheer volume, this claim overlooks that MLS schedules significantly more matches than most leagues, skewing the comparison.
Amid the positive—and sometimes euphoric—reactions across LinkedIn, it’s worth taking a closer, more critical look at the data. Here’s the kicker: the road ahead for MLS is not without challenges.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗕𝗶𝗴 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲. Stadium demand for MLS football has never been stronger. In 2024, the league's 29 clubs distributed 11.5 million tickets during the regular season, up from 10.9 million in 2023. Including playoffs, attendance demand reached 12.2 million, a 600,000-ticket increase. This is impressive: the Bundesliga, often seen as the world’s most in-demand league after the NFL, distributed 12.1 million tickets in 2023–24.
𝗔𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗔𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲𝘀. The caveat? While the Bundesliga featured 306 matches, MLS held 522. As a result, the two leagues averaged 39.5k and 23.3k tickets per match, respectively—a 16k difference per game. Other top European leagues also outpace MLS: Premier League (38.6k), Serie A (30.9k), La Liga (29.0k), Ligue 1 (27.1k), and even Germany’s Bundesliga 2 (29.2k). In terms of demand, MLS is most comparable to England’s Championship (23.2k per match across 557 games).
𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵. Some argue that MLS has shown substantial growth, signaling a bright future. However, this growth is modest. Historical data shows average attendance was 21.6k in 2015, peaked at 22.1k in 2017, and dropped to 21.0k in 2022 post-COVID. Re-accelerating growth? Perhaps—but for now, it’s incremental.
𝗠𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶, 𝗠𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶, 𝗠𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶. 𝗕𝘂𝘁 𝗪𝗵𝗼’𝘀 𝗡𝗲𝘅𝘁? Two troubling trends emerge when examining specific clubs. First, home support for Atlanta United, the league’s attendance leader, is declining. In 2024, the club distributed 48.0k tickets per match, its lowest since 2016 and well below its 2018 peak of 53.0k. Charlotte FC and Seattle Sounders, ranked second and third, also saw declines. Second, Lionel Messi’s arrival has been a massive draw. Inter Miami attracted an average of 39.8k spectators per match on the road. Such superstar effects are undeniable—but what happens when Messi retires? Sustaining this interest will be a challenge.
𝗟𝗼𝗼𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗔𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱. For now, the league’s momentum continues. With Messi still on board and a new expansion team adding matches, MLS is likely to set another attendance record next year. Whether this growth is sustainable remains unclear.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗻𝘁. Attendance figures are based on FBRef’s data on tickets distributed, not turnstile counts.
Retired Mass Media faculty at Valdosta State University
1mojust WOW!! even if they don't advance from here it's still a marvelous season cap!!!