Last week we talked about Mitch Marner’s impending contract status. It’s only fair that we do the same for Mikko Rantanen, who’s in a similar situation with Colorado.
Like Marner, Rantanen is a no-doubt elite winger and one of the absolute best players in the world. He’s a 100-point franchise winger. There’s no question about his talent, but there’s the fact Rantanen, like Marner, is also overshadowed by a perennial MVP candidate (and in Rantanen’s case, two). Just like it’s hard to justify paying Marner more than Auston Matthews, it’s hard to justify paying Rantanen more than Nathan MacKinnon. That should set a line at $12.6 million for Rantanen.
An internal cap, though, is an easier argument to make for Marner than it is for Rantanen. Matthews set the bar a little higher than MacKinnon ($13.25 million vs. $12.6 million) and Marner’s projected value ($12.6 million now) falls below it. Rantanen, by virtue of being a little better than Marner (his projected Net Rating is 1.6 goals higher at the moment), has a projected value that is currently north of MacKinnon’s. Based on what Rantanen is now, his fair value (according to my model, anyway) sits at $13.3 million on an eight-year deal.
That puts Colorado and Rantanen in a potentially tougher spot.
Winning players generally take less money and Rantanen can do just that while respecting the internal cap and still being one of the highest-paid players in the world. A $12.5 million deal, for example, is a lot of money while still giving the Avalanche a slight discount on what he’s worth.
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Rantanen, though, does have the leverage to command more and that’s what makes it difficult. While Marner, with some of his playoff warts, may be a tougher sell on the open market at $13-14 million, Rantanen might not be when his projected value falls right in that range and he has proven playoff pedigree with a Cup ring to his name. That he’s already won might also add a bit more incentive for Rantanen to secure the bag, too.
It’s a tricky situation where players shouldn’t be beholden to an internal cap during a time when the salary cap could grow faster than ever. Rantanen, at $13.3 million, would be getting 14.4 percent of the cap, which still falls below MacKinnon’s 15.1 percent. These conversations should always be viewed through cap percentage, and in that sense, Colorado’s internal cap would remain intact. (And maybe MacKinnon shouldn’t have taken a 20-plus percent discount in the first place.)
Franchise players are obviously extremely difficult to replace — even in the aggregate. That gives the league’s best players a lot of leverage and it seems they’re finally ready to use it to take advantage of a salary cap that’s set to explode past $100 million in the coming years.
That makes for difficult conversations to be had in Colorado and Toronto, where there are a lot of contextual factors outside of each player’s ‘true’ value. Rantanen and Marner are worth big money — but finding the right number for both won’t be easy.
16 stats
1. Colorado’s goaltending carousel
The big story around the Avalanche this season has obviously been their goaltending, enough for the front office to completely overhaul it. Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood, in; Alexandar Georgiev and Justus Annunen, out. It felt like a necessary change, one that has paid immediate dividends.
In 1,462 minutes, Georgiev and Annunen combined for an .874 save percentage and allowed 12.8 goals above expected — 0.52 per 60. They were the worst tandem in the league. Blackwood and Wedgewood have only played 398 minutes so far, but it’s still noteworthy that their results represent a complete 180. Together, the tandem has a .933 save percentage and has saved 5.6 goals above expected — 0.84 per 60.
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2. Linus Ullmark’s bounce-back
After a rough start, it’s great to see Linus Ullmark return to form for Ottawa. He looks exactly like the player fans thought they were getting from Boston: a Vezina-caliber starter. Over the last few weeks, Ullmark has posted eight straight starts in which he’s saved more goals than expected. During that stretch, Ullmark has a .955 save percentage and has saved 13.5 goals above expected, tops in the league. Prior to that, Ullmark was fifth-last in goals saved.
Unsurprisingly, the Senators are 7-0-1 in Ullmark’s starts during this stretch and are back in the thick of the East’s playoff race. Ottawa’s playoff chances have climbed from 20 percent to 55 percent during that time.
3. Maple Leafs end five-forward power play experiment
Thanks to a sputtering power play to start the season, the Leafs got creative with a five-forward setup featuring Matthews, Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares and Matthew Knies. It made some sense on paper, with every player in a seemingly natural spot (including Marner up top), but in practice, it just didn’t work.
The quintet spent just 17:22 together this season and maybe could’ve ironed out the kinks with a bit more time. But compared to the team’s usual setup, the 5F power play generated fewer chances (7.1 xGF/60 compared to 10.7) and allowed an exorbitantly high amount of chances and goals against. The risk far outweighed the reward.
4. Red-hot Brayden Point
Brayden Point feels unstoppable right now. While a lot of eyes are naturally on Nikita Kucherov this season (again, for good reason), Point deserves some of the spotlight, too. He has three four-point games in December alone and has been a monster since returning from injury. Over the last month, he has 13 goals and 24 points in 13 games, both of which lead the league. For the season he’s scoring at a 69-goal, 121-point pace.
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Point won’t keep scoring on 35 percent (!) of his shots going forward, but that his goal scoring has been this clinical has been amazing to witness.
5. Denied by Simon Edvinsson
I’ve always viewed Corey Sznajder’s tracking work as some of the most illuminating data in the public sphere and he’s started to share some of his tracked data for this season on his website All Three Zones. While it’s obviously important to be careful with small sample sizes, it’s still cool to take a look at some players standing out early.
One of those is Simon Edvinsson. In the last edition of 16 stats, I noted how strong Detroit’s top pair has looked defensively and one indicator of why that might be is Edvinsson being a potential neutral zone force. In the games Sznajder has tracked, Edvinsson stands alone in his ability to deny zone entries and force dump-ins — two keys to limiting offense. Last year, Brett Pesce, Devon Toews, MacKenzie Weegar, Jared Spurgeon and Gustav Forsling were among the league’s best. That’s good company to keep.
It’s still very early in the season and in Sznajder’s tracking process, but it’s something to keep an eye on with Edvinsson’s game going forward.
6. Travis Konecny: elite passer
Another interesting thing to note is just how strong Travis Konecny is at setting up scoring chances. That goes back to last season, when only Connor McDavid and Nikita Kucherov earned more scoring chance assists per 60 according to Sznajder’s tracked data, and Konecny has picked up right where he left off this season.
That may be a surprise to some — Konecny’s 60 assists over the last two years ranks 63rd — but that’s partially a result of playing for the Flyers. Konecny is one of the team’s few (if only) elite offensive drivers and it’s hard to create goals for teammates if they’re not gifted goal scorers. On another team with more support, Konecny’s passing ability would likely shine much more.
One reason to believe that is what he’s managed this year from a play-making perspective when paired with Philadelphia’s other best wingers: Owen Tippett and Matvei Michkov. Konecny has played 216 minutes with at least one of them this season and has 2.22 assists per 60 during that time at five-on-five. In the 256 minutes without, that drops to 1.17.
Konecny is scoring at a 95-point pace this season, but with more scoring help that number could be his normal rather than his ceiling.
7. Travis Konecny: offensive driver
Over a small sample, individual points percentage (how often a player gets a point when he’s on for a goal) can be a sign of good fortune and that probably applies to Konecny this season. He’s been on the ice for 17 goals and has a point on every single one of them. That’s unusual and should correct itself over the course of the season, especially as the other side of the luck coin — the Flyers scoring fewer goals than expected with Konecny on the ice — corrects itself too.
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Over a large sample, though, individual points percentage can be another way to look at a player’s ability to drive his team’s offense. It’s one area where Konecny frequently scores well and is another indicator that the rest of the team is holding back his offensive upside. Over the last five years, only five forwards have a point on 80 percent of the goals his team has scored at five-on-five. Konecny is one of them.
IPP leaders since 2020-21 (minimum 1,500 minutes)
Connor Bedard — 86.8 percent
Artemi Panarin — 84.3 percent
Mitch Marner — 81.2 percent
Connor McDavid — 80.7 percent
Travis Konecny — 80.4 percent
8. Carolina’s third pair struggling
Early on in the season, one of the reasons Carolina was dominating opponents was its new third pair. Yes, they were playing easy minutes, but their results in those minutes were eye-popping enough not to matter. In their first 10 games together, Shayne Gostisbehere and Sean Walker had a 78 percent xG rate, outscoring opponents 6-2 in the process.
Their work since, though, has been much weaker and it’s part of the reason Carolina has struggled of late. Since the hot start, the pair’s xG rate has regressed to 52 percent, a rather modest rate for a very sheltered third pair. They’ve also been outscored 17-10. Some of that is bad luck, obviously, but given each player’s reputation for weaker defense, it’s not a huge surprise to see goals being scored against them in bunches.
The pair is still controlling play and should turn it around, but given the aforementioned defensive weaknesses as well as their smaller statures, it’ll be interesting how the duo performs in a playoff setting. Can that third pair handle the heat?
9. Leon Draisaitl’s new level
Not to state the obvious, but Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have been unreal together this season — better than usual. That’s saying a lot. Over the previous two years, the duo has earned 60 percent of goals and expected goals together. This year they’re pushing 70 percent in both categories. When a duo is that good, spreading the wealth becomes a lot harder.
All of that is thanks to Draisaitl reaching a new level at five-on-five where even without McDavid he’s dominating to new degrees earning 60 percent of the goals and expected goals. He’s been absolutely elite defensively and that’s meant more time in the offensive zone. Draisaitl has arguably been Edmonton’s MVP this season, playing, without question, the best hockey of his career.
Draisaitl’s Net Rating on the season is plus-12, second to only Kirill Kaprizov.
10. Darnell Nurse’s career year
Possibly related to the point above: Darnell Nurse has been fantastic this year.
That’s been much-needed after a terrible playoffs and a rough start to this season, but he’s seriously turned things around over the last month. Since November, Nurse has a 55 percent xG rate and the Oilers have outscored opponents 14-3 in his minutes. For the year he has a plus-three Defensive Rating which ranks 24th among defensemen. That’s great to see.
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According to Sznajder’s data, there could be two reasons for that: better breakouts and stronger zone entry defense.
11. Kings’ wake-up call
Since losing 7-2 to the Sharks in late November, the Kings have been one of the league’s hottest teams with a 7-1-1 record. It was hard to imagine without Drew Doughty, but the Kings have been a seriously good team this year. They lead all teams in five-on-five xG, are second in goals and have one of the league’s best penalty kills. Once Doughty comes back, the Kings have serious dark horse potential in the West.
12. Canucks without Miller
The Canucks played 10 games without J.T. Miller and while they survived with a 5-3-2 record, they certainly didn’t look great doing it. During that stretch, the team was last in the NHL earning 41.7 percent of expected goals, 1.6 percentage points worse than the next team (the Rangers — perhaps a cautionary tale). The team’s offensive creation absolutely cratered where they somehow generated only 1.61 expected goals per 60 per game. The difference between the Canucks and the next worst team, Chicago at 2.03, was the same as the difference between Chicago and Winnipeg in 14th. Not good.
Miller is back now, but the implications of his absence are still there with questions about whether he and teammate Elias Pettersson can co-exist. And if not, what does that mean for Brock Boeser, who mostly struggled without him?
It’s a delicate balance and it’s possible winning could heal all wounds. What feels clear from the outside is that this team needs Miller — they didn’t look right without him.
13. Hughes without Hronek
We’ve still yet to see the Canucks at full power this season and I do think they’ll look closer to last year’s version when that happens. At the very least, we’re getting to see just how valuable some players are amidst the injury troubles and that certainly applies to Filip Hronek. While some view him as a ‘Hughes merchant,’ that feels a bit unfair. Hughes is obviously the engine of the blue line, but chemistry is a two-way street and Hronek does help bring out the best of Hughes.
Before his injury, Hughes was dominating at five-on-five with 59 percent of expected goals, but that’s dropped to 47 percent in the 10 games that Hronek has missed. That 12 percentage point drop is obviously not all Hronek and some of it can be attributed to other contexts, especially since Hughes’ new partner is Tyler Myers. The team as a whole is struggling and to Hughes’ credit, he’s still outscoring opponents. Still, it should create some appreciation for what Hronek is: a solid No. 2 defenseman who brings out the best in an elite partner, not just some guy next to Hughes.
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14. Secondary assist Eichel
Something interesting I noticed while perusing the scoring leaderboards: Jack Eichel is second in the league with 33 assists, but 21 of those are secondary helpers. While Eichel may be top 10 in scoring right now, he’s tied for 46th if you look only at primary points. It’s part of the reason he currently ranks 26th in Net Rating despite the gaudy totals.
At the moment, just 36 percent of Eichel’s assists are primary, an unusually low ratio that made me curious about where it stands relative to the past. Going back to 2007-08, Eichel’s primary assist percentage would be the sixth lowest among players with at least 30 assists — not far off Ryan O’Reilly last season (15 primary assists compared to 28 secondary, 35 percent). The leader? That would be Henrik Sedin in 2017-18 when only 13 of his 47 assists were primary (28 percent).
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15. Vegas’ power play
Digging a bit deeper: Eichel has 12 power-play assists this year and only two (!) have been primary. That’s especially curious and shows that almost the entire primary-to-secondary difference is purely a result of Vegas’ power-play scheme and where Eichel fits within it.
Some would suggest that the high secondary assist total makes Eichel a passenger on Vegas’ power play — that even if secondary assists aren’t worthless, they should be worth less. Looking through all of Eichel’s secondary assists, though, makes it clear he’s what makes Vegas’ power play go. It’s Eichel with the puck on his stick, it’s Eichel starting plays, and it’s Eichel with the most gravity out there. An element almost every Eichel secondary assist shares is getting the goalie to move twice — usually with a pass down low that comes back to the bumper. Eichel is the conductor.
While it seems to be working with Vegas having a top-five power play this season, it’s also possible teams have figured out how to stop it over the last month. After scoring 13 goals per 60 to start the year, the Golden Knights have scored just six goals per 60 over their last 15 games, the 21st-best mark over the last month. During that stretch, Eichel had just two power-play points.
16. Cam Fowler trade
It’s difficult to judge any player on Anaheim over the last couple of years — the system seems to be failing the players and there’s a culture of losing that’s surely taking its toll.
That makes St. Louis’ play for Cam Fowler an interesting one. Skill set-wise, he seems like an excellent fit next to Colton Parayko as someone with experience playing tough minutes who can move the puck. Value-wise, the bottom did seem to fall off for the 33-year-old defender last year and he only fell further to start this season. Over the last two years in Anaheim, the Ducks have been outscored 89-44 with Fowler on the ice with just 44 percent of expected goals — both well below team average, which says a lot given the strength of the Ducks. Not even accounting for his tough usage could save those numbers.
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Was that the sign of the end for Fowler or simply the sign of his end in Anaheim?
That’s the big question that made trading for Fowler a big risk, one the Blues obviously felt comfortable with. Fresh starts have the ability to rejuvenate players and we’re seeing that with a strong start from Fowler. It’s only been three games, but so far Fowler and Parayko have been excellent together with 55 percent of shot attempts and 66 percent of expected goals.
Here’s hoping it continues — both players deserve to finally play with a dependable partner and it would be cool to see them find it in each other.
— Data via Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Stat Cards and All Three Zones
(Top photo of Mikko Rantanen: Ron Chenoy / Imagn Images)
