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2016 United States presidential election in Idaho

Main article: 2016 United States presidential election

The 2016 United States presidential election in Idaho was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Idaho voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Idaho has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

2016 United States presidential election in Idaho
← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout75.87% Increase[1]
 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Evan McMullin
Party Republican Democratic Independent
Home state New York New York Utah
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine Nathan Johnson
Electoral vote 4 0 0
Popular vote 409,055 189,765 46,476
Percentage 59.25% 27.48% 6.73%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Results by county with number of votes shown by size
Treemap of the popular vote by county

Trump was expected to win Idaho; Idaho is a Republican stronghold that has not voted for a Democratic candidate for president since Lyndon B. Johnson's national landslide in 1964, and even then it was Johnson's narrowest victory in the nation, winning by less than 2%. Trump ultimately carried the state with 59.25% of the vote, while Clinton received 27.48%. Third-party candidate Evan McMullin carried 6.75% of the popular vote, making Idaho his second-strongest state, only after neighboring Utah.[3] Trump got the lowest percentage of the vote for a Republican since 1996, and Clinton got the lowest percentage for a Democrat since 1984.

Primaries and Caucuses

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Republican primary

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Republican primary results by county.
  Ted Cruz
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Donald Trump
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%

Thirteen candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot. The only requirement to appear on the ballot was a filing fee of $1,000.[4]

Idaho Republican primary, March 8, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Ted Cruz 100,889 45.44% 20 0 20
Donald Trump 62,413 28.11% 12 0 12
Marco Rubio 35,290 15.90% 0 0 0
John Kasich 16,514 7.44% 0 0 0
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 3,853 1.74% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 939 0.42% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 834 0.38% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 358 0.16% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 353 0.16% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 242 0.11% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 211 0.10% 0 0 0
Lindsey Graham (withdrawn) 80 0.04% 0 0 0
Peter Messina (withdrawn) 28 0.01% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 222,004 100.00% 32 0 32
Source: The Green Papers

Democratic caucuses

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Main article: 2016 Idaho Democratic presidential caucuses
 
Results of the Democratic primary by county.
  Bernie Sanders
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   100%
  Hillary Clinton
  •   50–60%


e • d 2016 Democratic Party's presidential nominating process in Idaho
– Summary of results –
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 18,640 78.04% 18 2 20
Hillary Clinton 5,065 21.21% 5 1 6
Rocky De La Fuente 4 0.02%
Uncommitted 175 0.73% 1 1
Total 23,884 100% 23 4 27
Source: [5][6]

Constitution primary

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The Constitution Party of Idaho held its primary on March 8.

 
Election results, by county, of the 2016 constitution Presidential Primary in Idaho.
  Scott Copeland
  J.R. Myers
  Patrick Anthony Ockander
  Tie
  No votes
Idaho Constitution Party presidential primary, 2016[7][8][9]
Candidate Popular vote Pledged delegates
Count Percentage
  Scott Copeland 250 51.7% 8
J.R. Myers 139 28.7% 0
Patrick Anthony Ockander 95 19.6% 0
Total: 484 100% 8
Key: Withdrew prior to contest

General election

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Polling

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See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election § Idaho

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Los Angeles Times[10] Safe R November 6, 2016
CNN[11] Safe R November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[12] Safe R November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[13] Safe R November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[14] Safe R November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe R November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[16] Safe R November 8, 2016
Fox News[17] Safe R November 7, 2016

Results

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2016 United States presidential election in Idaho
Party Candidate Popular vote Percentage
Republican Donald Trump 409,055 59.25%
Democratic Hillary Clinton 189,765 27.48%
Independent Evan McMullin 46,476 6.73%
Libertarian Gary Johnson 28,331 4.10%
Green Jill Stein 8,496 1.23%
National Constitution Darrell L. Castle 4,403 0.64%
Constitution Scott Copeland 2,356 0.34%
Reform Roque De La Fuente 1,373 0.20%
Other/Write-in 178 0.03%
Total 690,433 100.00%
Source: Idaho Secretary of State Election Division New York Times

By county

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County Donald Trump
Republican 		Hillary Clinton
Democratic 		Evan McMullin
Independent 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # % # %
Ada 93,752 47.91% 75,677 38.68% 11,226 5.74% 15,014 7.67% 18,075 9.23% 195,669
Adams 1,556 71.28% 415 19.01% 80 3.66% 132 6.05% 1,141 52.27% 2,183
Bannock 17,180 51.41% 10,342 30.95% 3,449 10.32% 2,445 7.32% 6,838 20.46% 33,416
Bear Lake 2,203 75.24% 255 8.71% 366 12.50% 104 3.55% 1,837 62.74% 2,928
Benewah 3,103 74.15% 770 18.40% 61 1.46% 251 5.99% 2,333 55.75% 4,185
Bingham 10,907 65.61% 2,924 17.59% 2,002 12.04% 792 4.76% 7,983 48.02% 16,625
Blaine 3,340 31.15% 6,416 59.83% 289 2.69% 679 6.33% -3,076 -28.68% 10,724
Boise 2,673 70.08% 777 20.37% 112 2.94% 252 6.61% 1,896 49.71% 3,814
Bonner 13,343 63.71% 5,819 27.78% 372 1.78% 1,409 6.73% 7,524 35.93% 20,943
Bonneville 26,699 60.38% 8,930 20.19% 6,022 13.62% 2,570 5.81% 17,769 40.19% 44,221
Boundary 3,789 73.39% 933 18.07% 130 2.52% 311 6.02% 2,856 55.32% 5,163
Butte 914 74.31% 160 13.01% 114 9.27% 42 3.41% 754 61.30% 1,230
Camas 410 69.49% 110 18.64% 33 5.59% 37 6.28% 300 50.85% 590
Canyon 47,222 64.88% 16,883 23.20% 4,216 5.79% 4,464 6.13% 30,339 41.68% 72,785
Caribou 2,275 74.96% 271 8.93% 372 12.26% 117 3.85% 1,903 62.70% 3,052
Cassia 5,949 72.74% 1,036 12.67% 853 10.43% 340 4.16% 4,913 60.07% 8,178
Clark 203 71.73% 44 15.55% 23 8.13% 13 4.59% 159 56.18% 283
Clearwater 2,852 75.03% 704 18.52% 72 1.89% 173 4.56% 2,148 56.51% 3,801
Custer 1,777 73.61% 427 17.69% 82 3.40% 128 5.30% 1,350 55.92% 2,414
Elmore 5,816 68.25% 1,814 21.29% 376 4.41% 516 6.05% 4,002 46.96% 8,522
Franklin 3,901 70.94% 385 7.00% 912 16.58% 301 5.48% 2,989 54.36% 5,499
Fremont 4,090 71.57% 651 11.39% 751 13.14% 223 3.90% 3,339 58.43% 5,715
Gem 5,980 75.18% 1,229 15.45% 357 4.49% 388 4.88% 4,751 59.73% 7,954
Gooding 3,743 72.11% 930 17.92% 293 5.64% 225 4.33% 2,813 54.19% 5,191
Idaho 6,441 78.23% 1,196 14.53% 165 2.00% 431 5.24% 5,245 63.70% 8,233
Jefferson 8,436 73.52% 976 8.51% 1,560 13.59% 503 4.38% 6,876 59.93% 11,475
Jerome 4,644 68.79% 1,329 19.69% 419 6.21% 359 5.31% 3,315 49.10% 6,751
Kootenai 44,449 67.03% 16,264 24.53% 1,557 2.35% 4,040 6.09% 28,185 42.50% 66,310
Latah 7,265 39.98% 8,093 44.53% 696 3.83% 2,119 11.66% -828 -4.55% 18,173
Lemhi 3,011 73.51% 733 17.90% 139 3.39% 213 5.20% 2,278 55.61% 4,096
Lewis 1,202 75.60% 270 16.98% 17 1.07% 101 6.35% 932 58.62% 1,590
Lincoln 1,184 67.73% 360 20.59% 102 5.84% 102 5.84% 824 47.14% 1,748
Madison 8,941 56.99% 1,201 7.66% 4,669 29.76% 877 5.59% 4,272 27.23% 15,688
Minidoka 4,887 71.13% 1,167 16.98% 463 6.74% 354 5.15% 3,720 54.15% 6,871
Nez Perce 10,699 62.20% 4,828 28.07% 352 2.05% 1,322 7.68% 5,871 34.13% 17,201
Oneida 1,531 74.03% 184 8.90% 271 13.10% 82 3.97% 1,260 60.93% 2,068
Owyhee 3,052 77.76% 591 15.06% 108 2.75% 174 4.43% 2,461 62.70% 3,925
Payette 6,489 74.55% 1,507 17.31% 314 3.61% 394 4.53% 4,982 57.24% 8,704
Power 1,666 60.41% 699 25.34% 233 8.45% 160 5.80% 967 35.07% 2,758
Shoshone 3,297 64.39% 1,384 27.03% 87 1.70% 352 6.88% 1,913 37.36% 5,120
Teton 2,167 43.55% 2,159 43.39% 327 6.57% 323 6.49% 8 0.16% 4,976
Twin Falls 19,828 66.37% 6,233 20.86% 2,065 6.91% 3,813 5.86% 13,595 45.51% 29,874
Valley 2,906 54.33% 1,913 35.76% 194 3.63% 326 6.28% 993 18.57% 5,349
Washington 3,283 73.69% 776 17.42% 175 3.93% 221 4.96% 2,507 56.27% 4,455
Totals 409,055 59.25% 189,765 27.48% 46,476 6.73% 45,137 6.54% 219,290 31.77% 690,433
 
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +>15%
  •   Democratic — +10-12.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
  •   Republican — +12.5-15%
  •   Republican — +>15%

By congressional district

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Trump won both congressional districts.[18]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 63.7% 25.4% Raúl Labrador
2nd 54.5% 29.8% Mike Simpson

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Secretary of State: Lawerence Denney. "Nov 08, 2016 General Election Results". www.sos.idaho.gov. Retrieved May 16, 2020.
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved November 25, 2020.
  3. ^ "2016 Presidential Election Statistics". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved March 5, 2018.
  4. ^ "Idaho Republican Party State Rules" (PDF). June 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 30, 2016. Retrieved January 7, 2024.
  5. ^ The Green Papers
  6. ^ Idaho Democratic Party - Official Delegation for Pledged Delegates
  7. ^ "Mar 08, 2016 Presidential Primary Election Results United States - by County". sos.idaho.gov. Idaho Secretary Of State. Retrieved November 25, 2016.
  8. ^ Gr, The; Inquirer (March 10, 2016). "Scott Copeland wins Idaho Constitution Party primary". The Grand Inquirer. Archived from the original on November 26, 2016. Retrieved November 26, 2016.
  9. ^ Gr, The; Inquirer (March 2, 2016). "Patrick Ockander drops out of Constitution Party presidential race, endorses J.R. Myers and Ted Cruz". The Grand Inquirer. Archived from the original on November 26, 2016. Retrieved November 26, 2016.
  10. ^ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  11. ^ Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  12. ^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Archived from the original on February 16, 2017. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  13. ^ "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  14. ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  15. ^ Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  16. ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  17. ^ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  18. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
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