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2012 United States presidential election in New York

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Main article: 2012 United States presidential election
2012 United States presidential election in New York
← 2008 November 6, 2012 2016 →
Turnout59.2% (Decrease 4.2 pp)
 
Nominee Barack Obama Mitt Romney
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance Working Families Conservative
Home state Illinois Massachusetts
Running mate Joe Biden Paul Ryan
Electoral vote 29 0
Popular vote 4,485,741 2,490,431
Percentage 63.35% 35.17%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

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The 2012 United States presidential election in New York took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Voters chose 29 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan.

Barack Obama carried the state of New York by a landslide margin, winning 63.35% of the vote to Mitt Romney's 35.17%.[1] As in previous elections, the Democratic ticket easily won, for the most part due to racking up very large margins in New York City (which in and of itself makes up 42.2% of the state's population) and its metropolitan area. The city alone garnered Obama 1,995,241 votes (or 81.19% of the vote in the city), including Staten Island (Richmond County), which he had failed to carry in 2008. Putnam County, which McCain won in 2008, was the only county in the NYC metropolitan area that Obama lost to Romney. The rest of his votes mostly came from Albany, Buffalo, Ithaca, Rochester, Syracuse, and their respective metropolitan areas, giving him a solid 28.18% lead over Romney. Obama even won in many rural counties. The Republicans won only in some rural parts of upstate and western New York.

New York was 1 of only 6 states to swing in President Obama's favor from 2008 to 2012, giving him the largest percentage of the vote for any presidential candidate in the state since 1964 and the second largest Democratic vote share in the state in history (as well as third most in the state's entire history, behind William Harding in 1920 as well). Similar to New Jersey, some news outlets, such as The New York Times, have proposed that Obama's improved performance in these states – as opposed to worsened performances in areas like the Rust Belt – was due to his handling of Hurricane Sandy, which made landfall on October 29.[2] Mayor of New York City Michael Bloomberg, a Republican-turned-Independent, endorsed Obama due to the federal government's handling of the hurricane.[3]

As of the 2024 presidential election, this is the last time the Democratic nominee won the following counties: Cayuga, Cortland, Franklin, Madison, Niagara, Orange, Oswego, Otsego, Richmond (Staten Island), Seneca, St. Lawrence, Suffolk, Sullivan, Warren, and Washington. This is also the last presidential election in New York in which the Democratic nominee won more counties than the Republican nominee. In subsequent elections, despite Republicans winning more counties, they have been unable to break through the huge Democratic advantage in New York City and its suburbs, ensuring that the state has remained solidly blue.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Incumbent President Barack Obama ran uncontested in the Democratic primary, and it was therefore cancelled.[4]

Republican primary

[edit]
2012 New York Republican presidential primary
← 2008 April 24, 2012 (2012-04-24) 2016 →
 
Candidate Mitt Romney Ron Paul
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Delegate count 92 0
Popular vote 118,912 27,699
Percentage 62.42% 14.54%
 
Candidate Newt Gingrich Rick Santorum
Home state Georgia Pennsylvania
Delegate count 0 0
Popular vote 23,990 18,997
Percentage 12.59% 9.97%
Results by county

Romney:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

(Note: Italicization indicates a withdrawn candidacy)
2012 New York Republican presidential primary[5]
Candidate Votes Percentage Projected delegate count
AP CNN
 FOX
Mitt Romney 118,912 62.42% 92 92
Ron Paul 27,699 14.54% 0 0
Newt Gingrich 23,990 12.59% 1 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 18,997 9.97% 0 0
Blank 810 0.43% 0 0
Void 106 0.06% 0 0
Scattering 1 0.00% 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 2 3 95
Total: 190,515 100.00% 95 95 95

The 2012 New York Republican presidential primary took place on April 24, 2012.[6][7]

By county, Romney won a plurality in every county, and a majority in all but six: Niagara, Cattaraugus, Wyoming, Orleans, Schuyler, Herkimer and Oswego.

Paul finished second in most counties. Santorum finished second in Otsego County. Gingrich finished second in two geographic areas: a cluster of counties in the Catskills and Hudson Valley (Orange, Rockland, Sullivan, and Westchester) and in most of the counties of Western New York (Allegany, Cattaraugus, Erie, Genesee, Niagara, and Wyoming), in addition to Herkimer and Oneida counties.[5] Gingrich's relative strength in Western New York, as well as in Herkimer, can be attributed to the continued popularity and efforts of Carl Paladino, who carried those counties in the previous gubernatorial election and campaigned on Gingrich's behalf. The majority of New York politicians had endorsed Romney while the primary election was still competitive.

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Huffington Post[8] Safe D November 6, 2012
CNN[9] Safe D November 6, 2012
The New York Times[10] Safe D November 6, 2012
The Washington Post'[11] Safe D November 6, 2012
RealClearPolitics[12] Solid D November 6, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] Solid D November 5, 2012
FiveThirtyEight[14] Solid D November 6, 2012

Candidate ballot access

[edit]

Write-in candidate access:

Results

[edit]
2012 United States presidential election in New York[15]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama 4,337,622 61.25%
Working Families Barack Obama 148,119 2.09%
Total Barack Obama (incumbent) Joe Biden (incumbent) 4,485,741 63.35% 29
Republican Mitt Romney 2,228,060 31.46%
Conservative Mitt Romney 262,371 3.71%
Total Mitt Romney Paul Ryan 2,490,431 35.17% 0
Libertarian Gary Johnson Jim Gray 47,256 0.67% 0
Green Jill Stein Cheri Honkala 39,982 0.56% 0
Write-ins Write-ins 9,076 0.13% 0
Constitution Virgil Goode Jim Clymer 6,274 0.09% 0
Socialism and Liberation Peta Lindsay Yari Osorio 2,050 0.03% 0
Justice (write-in) Rocky Anderson (write-in) Luis J. Rodriguez 217 <0.01% 0
Freedom Socialist (write-in) Stephen Durham Christina López 34 <0.01% 0
America's (write-in) Tom Hoefling J. D. Ellis 34 <0.01% 0
Socialist Workers (write-in) James Harris Maura DeLuca 27 <0.01% 0
Socialist Equality (write-in) Jerry White Phyllis Scherrer 19 <0.01% 0
Twelve Visions (write-in) Jill Reed Tom Cary 12 <0.01% 0
American Third Position (write-in) Merlin Miller Virginia Abernethy 6 <0.01% 0
Totals 7,081,159 100.00% 29
Voter Turnout (Registered) 59.2%

New York City results

[edit]
2012 presidential election in New York City Manhattan The Bronx Brooklyn Queens Staten Island Total
Democratic-
Working Families 		Barack Obama 502,674 339,211 604,443 470,732 78,181 1,995,241 81.19%
83.7% 91.45% 82.02% 79.08% 50.7%
Republican-
Conservative 		Mitt Romney 89,559 29,967 124,551 118,589 74,223 436,889 17.78%
14.92% 8.08% 16.9% 19.9% 48.14%
Green Jill Stein 3,241 648 3,616 2,121 457 10,083 0.4%
0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.35% 0.29%
Libertarian Gary Johnson 2,574 529 2,074 2,050 770 7,997 0.32%
0.69% 0.07% 0.3% 0.34% 0.49%
Others Others 2,243 583 2,298 1,753 549 7,426 0.29%
0.37% 0.16% 0.31% 0.29% 0.35%
TOTAL 600,291 370,938 736,982 595,245 154,180 2,457,636 100.00%

By county

[edit]
County Barack Obama
Democratic 		Mitt Romney
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Albany 87,556 64.49% 45,064 33.19% 3,147 2.32% 42,492 31.30% 135,767
Allegany 6,139 36.21% 10,390 61.29% 424 2.50% −4,251 −25.08% 16,953
Bronx 339,211 91.45% 29,967 8.08% 1,760 0.47% 309,244 83.37% 370,938
Broome 41,970 51.46% 37,641 46.15% 1,954 2.39% 4,329 5.31% 81,565
Cattaraugus 12,649 42.49% 16,569 55.66% 549 1.85% −3,920 −13.17% 29,767
Cayuga 17,007 54.58% 13,454 43.18% 700 2.24% 3,553 11.40% 31,161
Chautauqua 23,812 45.05% 27,971 52.92% 1,069 2.03% −4,159 −7.87% 52,852
Chemung 16,797 47.98% 17,612 50.31% 601 1.71% −815 −2.33% 35,010
Chenango 9,116 47.20% 9,713 50.29% 485 2.51% −597 −3.09% 19,314
Clinton 18,961 61.85% 11,115 36.26% 580 1.89% 7,846 25.59% 30,656
Columbia 16,221 55.69% 12,225 41.97% 683 2.34% 3,996 13.72% 29,129
Cortland 10,482 53.41% 8,695 44.31% 447 2.28% 1,787 9.10% 19,624
Delaware 8,304 44.55% 9,938 53.32% 396 2.13% −1,634 −8.77% 18,638
Dutchess 65,312 52.80% 56,025 45.29% 2,368 1.91% 9,287 7.51% 123,705
Erie 237,356 57.31% 169,675 40.97% 7,164 1.72% 67,681 16.34% 414,195
Essex 9,784 58.53% 6,647 39.76% 286 1.71% 3,137 18.77% 16,717
Franklin 9,894 62.09% 5,740 36.02% 300 1.89% 4,154 26.07% 15,934
Fulton 8,607 43.47% 10,814 54.62% 378 1.91% −2,207 −11.15% 19,799
Genesee 9,601 38.80% 14,607 59.03% 538 2.17% −5,006 −20.23% 24,746
Greene 9,030 43.69% 11,174 54.06% 464 2.25% −2,144 −10.37% 20,668
Hamilton 1,128 36.24% 1,932 62.06% 53 1.70% −804 −25.82% 3,113
Herkimer 11,273 45.02% 13,282 53.04% 485 1.94% −2,009 −8.02% 25,040
Jefferson 17,099 47.89% 18,122 50.75% 487 1.36% −1,023 −2.86% 35,708
Kings 604,443 82.02% 124,551 16.90% 7,988 1.08% 479,892 65.12% 736,982
Lewis 4,724 44.90% 5,651 53.71% 147 1.39% −927 −8.81% 10,522
Livingston 11,705 43.72% 14,448 53.97% 617 2.31% −2,743 −10.25% 26,770
Madison 13,871 49.37% 13,622 48.49% 601 2.14% 249 0.88% 28,094
Monroe 193,501 57.97% 133,362 39.95% 6,950 2.08% 60,139 18.02% 333,813
Montgomery 8,493 46.70% 9,334 51.33% 359 1.97% −841 −4.63% 18,186
Nassau 302,695 53.28% 259,308 45.64% 6,148 1.08% 43,387 7.64% 568,151
New York 502,674 83.74% 89,559 14.92% 8,058 1.34% 413,115 68.82% 600,291
Niagara 43,986 49.42% 43,240 48.58% 1,787 2.00% 746 0.84% 89,013
Oneida 40,468 46.68% 44,530 51.36% 1,702 1.96% −4,062 −4.68% 86,700
Onondaga 122,254 59.72% 78,831 38.51% 3,632 1.77% 43,423 21.21% 204,717
Ontario 23,087 48.25% 23,820 49.78% 946 1.97% −733 −1.53% 47,853
Orange 73,315 52.13% 65,367 46.48% 1,946 1.39% 7,948 5.65% 140,628
Orleans 5,787 39.35% 8,594 58.44% 325 2.21% −2,807 −19.09% 14,706
Oswego 23,515 52.73% 19,980 44.81% 1,096 2.46% 3,535 7.92% 44,591
Otsego 12,117 50.20% 11,461 47.48% 561 2.32% 656 2.72% 24,139
Putnam 19,512 44.00% 24,083 54.31% 750 1.69% −4,571 −10.31% 44,345
Queens 470,732 79.08% 118,589 19.92% 5,924 1.00% 352,143 59.16% 595,245
Rensselaer 37,408 54.96% 29,113 42.77% 1,540 2.27% 8,295 12.19% 68,061
Richmond 78,181 50.71% 74,223 48.14% 1,776 1.15% 3,958 2.57% 154,180
Rockland 65,793 52.78% 57,428 46.07% 1,424 1.15% 8,365 6.71% 124,645
Saratoga 52,957 50.19% 50,382 47.75% 2,171 2.06% 2,575 2.44% 105,510
Schenectady 36,844 56.74% 26,568 40.92% 1,521 2.34% 10,276 15.82% 64,933
Schoharie 5,427 41.09% 7,467 56.54% 313 2.37% −2,040 −15.45% 13,207
Schuyler 3,674 45.10% 4,281 52.55% 191 2.35% −607 −7.45% 8,146
Seneca 7,094 53.48% 5,889 44.39% 283 2.13% 1,205 9.09% 13,266
St. Lawrence 21,353 57.41% 15,138 40.70% 700 1.89% 6,215 16.71% 37,191
Steuben 15,787 40.97% 21,954 56.98% 790 2.05% −6,167 −16.01% 38,531
Suffolk 304,079 51.17% 282,131 47.48% 8,056 1.35% 21,948 3.69% 594,266
Sullivan 15,268 53.73% 12,705 44.71% 442 1.56% 2,563 9.02% 28,415
Tioga 8,930 41.36% 12,117 56.13% 542 2.51% −3,187 −14.77% 21,589
Tompkins 27,244 68.48% 11,107 27.92% 1,430 3.60% 16,137 40.56% 39,781
Ulster 47,752 59.97% 29,759 37.37% 2,115 2.66% 17,993 22.60% 79,626
Warren 14,806 50.06% 14,119 47.73% 653 2.21% 687 2.33% 29,578
Washington 11,523 49.89% 11,085 48.00% 487 2.11% 438 1.89% 23,095
Wayne 16,635 44.30% 20,060 53.43% 852 2.27% −3,425 −9.13% 37,547
Westchester 240,785 61.99% 143,122 36.84% 4,540 1.17% 97,663 25.15% 388,447
Wyoming 5,661 34.66% 10,348 63.35% 326 1.99% −4,687 −28.69% 16,335
Yates 4,488 47.53% 4,798 50.82% 156 1.65% −310 −3.29% 9,442
Totals 4,485,877 63.35% 2,490,496 35.17% 105,163 1.49% 1,995,381 28.18% 7,081,536

See full list of sources See full list of sources

County flips:
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Obama swept 24 of the state's 27 congressional districts, including three held by Republicans.[16]

District Obama Romney Representative
1st 49.62% 49.08% Tim Bishop
2nd 51.65% 47.23% Peter T. King
3rd 50.76% 48.21% Steve Israel
4th 56.31% 42.76% Carolyn McCarthy
5th 90.6% 9.1% Gregory Meeks
6th 67.8% 31.05% Grace Meng
7th 88.35% 10.34% Nydia Velázquez
8th 89.26% 10.14% Hakeem Jeffries
9th 85.28% 13.84% Yvette Clarke
10th 73.64% 25% Jerry Nadler
11th 51.6% 47.32% Michael Grimm
12th 76.92% 21.51% Carolyn Maloney
13th 94.64% 4.56% Charles B. Rangel
14th 80.67% 18.27% Joe Crowley
15th 96.75% 3% Jose Serrano
16th 73.69% 25.53% Eliot Engel
17th 57.07% 41.84% Nita Lowey
18th 51.43% 47.15% Sean Patrick Maloney
19th 52.12% 45.85% Chris Gibson
20th 59.2% 38.8% Paul Tonko
21st 52.24% 46.07% Bill Owens
22nd 48.76% 49.24% Richard L. Hanna
23rd 48.38% 49.59% Tom Reed
24th 57% 41.1% Dan Maffei
25th 58.77% 39.41% Louise Slaughter
26th 63.94% 34.31% Brian Higgins
27th 42.89% 55.29% Chris Collins

Analysis

[edit]

As expected, New York gave a landslide win to Obama, with 4,485,877 votes, or 63.35% of the popular vote, 28.18% lead ahead of Romney.[17] It was one of only six states to swing in Obama's favor from 2008, when he won with a 26.85% margin.[18] New York has voted solidly for the Democratic candidate in every election since Michael Dukakis in 1988, which marked the end of its status as a swing state. This was the greatest ever percentage of the vote won by a Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson won 68.56% of the vote in his 1964 44-state landslide.

The politics of New York State are dominated by the heavily populated area of New York City, which Barack Obama won in a historic landslide, taking 81.19% of the vote and sweeping all 5 boroughs. Obama took 1,995,241 votes in New York City, to Mitt Romney's 436,889. No other presidential candidate of either party has ever received more than 80% of the vote in New York City, and this remains the only time since 2000 that a Democrat won Staten Island, as well as all five boroughs of New York City. This was not only due to its majority liberal and extremely diverse population. His performance in New York City likely contributed to his improvement from 2008, which was unusual compared to the rest of the country where he underperformed from 2008 (particularly in areas like the Midwest and Rust Belt).

He managed to flip Staten Island, which voted for John McCain in 2008, as well as improved his margins in all other boroughs except for Manhattan. This improved performance is likely attributable to Hurricane Sandy, which made landfall on October 29 and had devastating effects on the state, killing 44 people, destroying 250,000 vehicles and 300 homes, damaging 69,000 residential units,[19] and flooding the New York City Subway, all tunnels within the city (except for the Lincoln Tunnel), and many suburban communities.[20] Areas that weren't directly affected by the hurricane were indirectly effected by power outages and major disruption to data communication.[21] Staten Island was hit hardest, with its geographical position combined with weather patterns, causing a 16 feet-high storm tide at its peak, flooding major residential areas.[22] 23 of the 44 deaths from the hurricane were in Staten Island.[23] The federal government's powerful and coordinated response to the hurricane was praised by those on both sides of the political aisle, garnering Mayor of New York City Michael Bloomberg's endorsement,[3] as well as praise from Republican politicians like then New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.[24] This – combined with the media's heavy criticism of Romney's support for a 40% budget cut to FEMA, which would grow to as much as 60% in the coming years – weakened Romney's performance amongst voters across city, including conservatives, especially in the borough of Staten Island.[25]

The advantage from Hurricane Sandy was also reflected in polls. Prior to the storm, nine nationwide polls listed in Real Clear Politics' database found Romney and Obama each leading in four and one tied. Seven national polls taken after the storm had shown Obama leading in three, four being tied, and Romney leading in none. In particular, a poll by Politico and George Washington University found Obama's lead increasing in the Northeast from 8 to 20% before and after the storm.[26]

Unlike many rural areas across the country, most notably in the Midwest, rural counties didn't swing especially hard against Obama this election. Most of the political landscape looked roughly the same, with the exception of Chautauqua County flipping red after supporting Obama by a narrow margin in 2008. However, Obama tied with Romney for white voters (who make up a majority of upstate's population but a minority in New York City) according to New York Times exit polls, a significant decline from 2008 when he won white voters 52 to 46.[27] Discounting New York City's votes, Obama still would have carried New York State, albeit by a closer margin. Excluding New York City, Obama's vote total in the state was 2,490,636 to Romney's 2,053,607, giving Obama a 54.03%–44.54% win outside of NYC.

In terms of exit polls, Obama performed roughly as expected. He won both women and men 68 to 31 and 58 to 42, respectively, and won Black voters 94 to 5 and Hispanic voters 89 to 11. These ethnic groups collectively make up 54.6% of New York City's population, and thus hold great influence in state elections. Obama won all age groups, education levels, and income levels, though he did best amongst 18- to 29-year-olds (72 to 25), those with no college degree (66 to 34), and those with an income under $30,000 (81 to 17), respectively. Obama not only won liberals and registered Democrats, but he also won moderates and independents 63 to 36 and 50 to 44 respectively – these groups make up 42% and 23% of the electorate and were thus vital for Obama to win.

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "2012 General Election Returns" (PDF). NYS Board of Elections. February 6, 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 29, 2019. Retrieved March 4, 2013.
  2. ^ "Opinion | A Big Storm Requires Big Government". The New York Times. October 29, 2012. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved September 3, 2020.
  3. ^ a b Hernandez, Raymond (November 1, 2012). "Bloomberg Backs Obama, Citing Fallout From Storm". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved September 3, 2020.
  4. ^ "New York Democratic Delegation 2012". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved September 3, 2020.
  5. ^ a b "Republican Party. Presidential Primary - April 24, 2012" (PDF). elections.ny.gov.
  6. ^ "Primary and Caucus Printable Calendar". CNN. Retrieved January 11, 2012.
  7. ^ "Presidential Primary Dates" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved January 23, 2012.
  8. ^ "Huffington Post Election Dashboard". HuffPost. Archived from the original on August 13, 2013.
  9. ^ "America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map". CNN. Archived from the original on January 19, 2013.
  10. ^ "Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory". The New York Times. Archived from the original on July 8, 2012.
  11. ^ "2012 Presidential Election Results". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
  12. ^ "RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived from the original on June 8, 2011.
  13. ^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".
  14. ^ "Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome".
  15. ^ "NYS Board of Elections President and Vice-President Election Returns Nov. 6, 2012" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on June 29, 2019. Retrieved May 2, 2013.
  16. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
  17. ^ "New York". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved September 3, 2020.
  18. ^ "New York - Election Results 2008 - The New York Times". www.nytimes.com. Retrieved September 3, 2020.
  19. ^ "About Hurricane Sandy". www1.nyc.gov. Archived from the original on June 25, 2021. Retrieved September 3, 2020.
  20. ^ "Hurricane Sandy - New York". www.usgs.gov. Retrieved September 3, 2020.
  21. ^ Troianovski, Anton (November 1, 2012). "A Look inside Verizon's Flooded Communications Hub". The Wall Street Journal. ISSN 0099-9660. Retrieved September 3, 2020.
  22. ^ Gammon, Crystal (November 7, 2012). "Why Hurricane Sandy Hit Staten Island So Hard". livescience.com. Retrieved September 3, 2020.
  23. ^ Taylor, Alan. "Hurricane Sandy: Staten Island Survivors - The Atlantic". www.theatlantic.com. Retrieved September 3, 2020.
  24. ^ "Chris Christie and Hurricane Sandy give Obama a timely boost". Los Angeles Times. November 1, 2012. Retrieved September 3, 2020.
  25. ^ "Politics of FEMA: Mitt Romney Suggested Less Federal Involvement, Paul Ryan Budget Scrutinized". ABC News. Retrieved September 3, 2020.
  26. ^ Cassidy, John (November 4, 2012). "How Much Did Hurricane Sandy Help Obama?". The New Yorker. Retrieved September 3, 2020.
  27. ^ "President Exit Polls". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved September 4, 2020.
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