2024 United States presidential election in Connecticut
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| Elections in Connecticut |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Connecticut was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Connecticut voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Connecticut has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[2]
A New England state, Connecticut last voted for a Republican presidential candidate in George H. W. Bush's landslide victory in the 1988 election. It is a strongly blue state, voting for Joe Biden in 2020 by more than 20%.
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden was running for reelection to a second term, and became the party's presumptive nominee, but withdrew from the race on July 21.[3][4] He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[5] The Republican nominee is former president Donald Trump.[6]
Harris comfortably won the state by 14.5 points, performing worse than Biden in 2020, but performing slightly better than Clinton in 2016. In contrast, Trump secured 41.9% of the vote to record the best Republican performance in Connecticut since 2004.[7] He flipped 14 municipalities across the state, including Bristol, Connecticut's twelfth-most populous city.[8] Conversely, Harris flipped the small town of Warren.[9][10] This was the first election since 1936 that Connecticut voted to the left of neighboring Rhode Island.
Primary elections
[edit]Republican primary
[edit]The Connecticut Republican primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside the New York primary. [11]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 34,750 | 77.88% | 28 | 0 | 28 |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 6,229 | 13.96% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uncommitted | 2,166 | 4.85% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 1,289 | 2.89% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 184 | 0.41% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 44,618 | 100.00% | 28 | 0 | 28 |
Democratic primary
[edit]The Connecticut Democratic primary was held on April 2, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 55,533 | 84.8% | 60 | 60 | |
| Uncommitted | 7,619 | 11.6% | |||
| Marianne Williamson | 1,490 | 2.3% | |||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 577 | 0.9% | |||
| Cenk Uygur (withdrawn) | 310 | 0.5% | |||
| Total: | 65,529 | 100.0% | 60 | 14 | 79 |
Libertarian primary
[edit]The Libertarian Party of Connecticut held a ranked-choice straw poll on April 2, 2024.[14]
| Candidate | Round 1 | T. | Round 2 | T. | Round 3 | T. | Round 4 | T. | Round 5 | T. | Round 6 | T. | Round 7 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||||||||||
| Chase Oliver | 37 | 34.9% | +1 | 38 | 35.8% | 38 | 37.6% | +3 | 41 | 41.0% | +1 | 42 | 42.4% | +2 | 44 | 44.4% | +5 | 49 | 51.0% | ||||
| Jacob Hornberger | 12 | 11.3% | 12 | 11.3% | +1 | 13 | 12.9% | +1 | 14 | 14.0% | +2 | 16 | 16.2% | +4 | 20 | 20.2% | +4 | 24 | 25.0% | ||||
| Michael Rectenwald | 14 | 14.6% | 14 | 13.2% | 14 | 13.9% | 14 | 14.0% | +2 | 16 | 16.2% | +2 | 18 | 18.2% | +5 | 23 | 24.0% | ||||||
| Joshua Smith | 10 | 9.4% | +1 | 11 | 10.4% | 11 | 10.9% | 11 | 11.0% | +2 | 13 | 13.1% | +4 | 17 | 17.2% | –17 | Eliminated | ||||||
| Mike ter Maat | 9 | 8.5% | 9 | 8.5% | 9 | 8.9% | +1 | 10 | 10.0% | +2 | 12 | 12.1% | –12 | Eliminated | |||||||||
| Lars Mapstead | 7 | 6.6% | +1 | 8 | 7.5% | 8 | 7.9% | +2 | 10 | 10.0% | –10 | Eliminated | |||||||||||
| Charles Ballay | 7 | 6.6% | +1 | 8 | 7.5% | 8 | 7.9% | –8 | Eliminated | ||||||||||||||
| None of the above | 6 | 5.7% | 6 | 5.7% | –6 | Eliminated | |||||||||||||||||
| Joseph Collins Jr. | 4 | 3.8% | –4 | Eliminated | |||||||||||||||||||
| Active ballots | 106 | –5 | 101 | –1 | 100 | –1 | 99 | –3 | 96 | ||||||||||||||
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[15] | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[16] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] | Safe D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[18] | Safe D | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[19] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[20] | Solid D | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[21] | Safe D | August 28, 2024 |
| 538[22] | Solid D | August 23, 2024 |
| RCP[23] | Solid D | June 26, 2024 |
| NBC News[24] | Safe D | October 6, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MassINC Polling Group[25][A] | September 12–18, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 37% | 3% | 8% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | ||||||
| John Zogby Strategies[26][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 55% | 38% | 7% |
| Emerson College[27][C] | October 19–21, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 40% | 11% |
| Emerson College[28][C] | September 7–9, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 36% | 15% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[29] | July 26–27, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 39% | 9% |
| Emerson College[30] | May 10–11, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 38% | 11% |
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[26][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 49% | 41% | 10% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[26][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 50% | 33% | 17% |
Results
[edit]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 992,053 | 56.40% | 2.84%
| ||
| Republican | 736,918 | 41.89% |  2.68%
| ||
| Green | 14,281 | 0.81% | 0.40%
| ||
| Independent |
|
8,448 | 0.48% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | 6,729 | 0.38% | 0.73%
| ||
| Write-in | 581 | 0.03% | 
| ||
| Total votes | 1,759,010 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
By county
[edit]| County | Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Fairfield | 267,019 | 59.04% | 178,263 | 39.41% | 7,021 | 1.55% | 88,756 | 19.63% | 452,303 |
| Hartford | 259,366 | 60.41% | 162,572 | 37.87% | 7,387 | 1.72% | 96,794 | 22.54% | 429,325 |
| Litchfield | 47,940 | 45.24% | 56,452 | 53.27% | 1,577 | 1.49% | -8,512 | -8.03% | 105,969 |
| Middlesex | 54,173 | 55.55% | 41,654 | 42.71% | 1,692 | 1.74% | 12,519 | 12.84% | 97,519 |
| New Haven | 218,981 | 55.02% | 171,435 | 43.08% | 7,571 | 1.90% | 47,546 | 11.94% | 397,987 |
| New London | 76,190 | 55.41% | 58,858 | 42.81% | 2,452 | 1.78% | 17,332 | 12.60% | 137,500 |
| Tolland | 43,311 | 53.13% | 36,773 | 45.11% | 1,436 | 1.76% | 6,538 | 8.02% | 81,520 |
| Windham | 25,073 | 44.08% | 30,911 | 54.34% | 903 | 1.59% | -5,838 | -10.26% | 56,887 |
| Total | 992,053 | 56.40% | 736,918 | 41.89% | 30,039 | 1.71% | 255,135 | 14.51% | 1,759,010 |
By congressional district
[edit]
Harris won all five congressional districts, performing the best in the fourth district to match Biden's strongest result there in 2020. However, she ceded ground by 1.71% to 3.99% across districts compared to 2020 despite a uniform victory. Such a result was also consistent with her underperformance in comparison to Democratic nominees for the election to the House of Representatives.
Conversely, Trump outran Republican nominees in three out of five districts, earning a poorer result in the third and fifth districts. He still improved on his 2020 performance in all five districts, gaining 2.01% to 3.77% more votes.[34][35][user-generated source]
| District | Harris | Trump | Harris vs House[36] |
Harris vs 2020[34] |
Trump vs House[36] |
Trump vs 2020[34] |
Representative |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 60.61% | 37.67% | −2.52% | −2.69% | +2.85% | +2.45% | John B. Larson |
| 2nd | 53.01% | 45.29% | −5.01% | −1.71% | +3.31% | +2.01% | Joe Courtney |
| 3rd | 55.94% | 42.11% | −2.91% | −3.29% | −0.96% | +2.60% | Rosa DeLauro |
| 4th | 60.83% | 37.59% | −0.20% | −3.99% | +0.23% | +3.77% | Jim Himes |
| 5th | 51.89% | 46.51% | −1.49% | −2.74% | −0.11% | +2.63% | Jahana Hayes |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Connecticut
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]Partisan clients
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Connecticut Mirror
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by WTNH-TV
References
[edit]- ^ "Registration and Party Enrollment Statistics as of October 31, 2024" (PDF). Connecticut Secretary of the State.
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ Levine, Sam; Gambino, Lauren (July 22, 2024). "Joe Biden withdraws from presidential race after weeks of pressure to quit". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
- ^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
- ^ Gold, Michael; Nehamas, Nicholas (March 13, 2024). "Donald Trump and Joe Biden Clinch Their Party Nominations". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
- ^ "Connecticut Presidential Election Voting History". 270toWin. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
- ^ "Connecticut Cities by Population (2024)". Connecticut Demographics. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
- ^ "Connecticut Presidential Election Results 2020". NBC News. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
- ^ "Connecticut President Results: Harris Wins". NBC News. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
- ^ "Election Calendars".
- ^ "Connecticut Presidential Primary". The AP. May 6, 2024. Retrieved May 17, 2024.
- ^ "Connecticut Presidential Primary". The AP. May 6, 2024. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
- ^ @LPofCT (April 3, 2024). "The winner of our LPCT Presidential Primary straw poll is @ChaseForLiberty" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved August 29, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ Pazniokas, Mark (September 23, 2024). "CT Mirror poll shows Harris leading Trump by 16 points in state". The Connecticut Mirror.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 25, 2022). "Connecticut 2022: Incumbents Blumenthal & Lamont Maintain Leads Ahead of Midterm Elections". Emerson Polling.
- ^ Latina, Jodi (September 15, 2022). "News 8/The Hill/Emerson Polling looks at abortion rights, presidential approval rating". WTNH-TV.
- ^ Keating, Christopher (August 1, 2022). "New poll shows Blumenthal ahead in U.S. Senate race by double digits and that many voters don't know his challengers". The Hartford Courant.
- ^ "Emerson Polling - Connecticut 2022 Poll: Lamont Leads Stefanowski in Gubernatorial Election". Emerson College Polling. May 18, 2022.
- ^ "Connecticut Election Results". Bloomberg. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
- ^ "Connecticut Election Results". Bloomberg. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
- ^ "Election Night Reporting". Secretary of State of Connecticut. November 5, 2024. Retrieved December 10, 2024.
- ^ a b c Nir, David. "Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district". Daily Kos. Retrieved November 15, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Pres by CD".
- ^ a b "Connecticut House Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved November 15, 2024.
