2024 Utah gubernatorial election
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 County results Cox: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% King: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Utah |
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The 2024 Utah gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of Utah, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Governor Spencer Cox won re-election to a second term, defeating Democratic nominee, state Representative Brian King and Republican state Representative Phil Lyman, who ran as a write-in candidate after being defeated in the Republican primary.[1] Primary elections took place on June 25, 2024.[2] This was the smallest percent of the vote by a winning republican since the 1992 election, which also saw a major independent candidate. Cox's 24.43% margin of victory was also the smallest since 2004.
Background
[edit]Utah is considered to be a strongly red state at the federal and state levels: Republicans control all statewide executive offices, the entire congressional delegation, and supermajorities in both state legislative chambers. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump carried Utah by 20.5 percentage points.[3][4]
Cox was first elected in 2020, defeating Christopher Peterson by 32.65 points.[5]
Republican primary
[edit]Incumbent Republican governor Spencer Cox faced criticism from many conservatives for his moderate political positions, including his veto of HB11,[6] and opposition to former president Donald Trump.[7] Cox was booed at the Utah Republican state convention in April 2024.[8] He faced a primary challenge from state representative Phil Lyman, who won over 67% of the vote at the convention.[9] However, Cox collected enough signatures to appear on the primary ballot. Cox consistently led Lyman in polls and won re-nomination, though Lyman refused to concede.[10][11]
Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Spencer Cox, incumbent governor[12]
- Running mate: Deidre Henderson, incumbent lieutenant governor[12]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Phil Lyman, state representative[13]
- Running mate: Natalie Clawson, attorney[14]
- Previous running mate: Layne Bangerter, former special assistant to the president[15]
Eliminated at convention
[edit]- Sylvia Miera-Fisk, commercial pilot[13]
- Carson Jorgensen, former chair of the Utah Republican Party (2021–2023) and candidate for Utah's 2nd congressional district in 2020[13]
- Running mate: Corrine Johnson, activist[16]
- Scott Robbins, U.S. Marine Corps veteran[13]
Declined
[edit]- Jason Chaffetz, former U.S. representative from Utah's 3rd congressional district (2009–2017)[17]
- Robert O'Brien, former U.S. National Security Advisor (2019–2021)[18][19]
Endorsements
[edit]Phil Lyman
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of June 13, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Spencer Cox (R) | $1,263,235 | $2,142,975 | $645,543 |
| Phil Lyman (R) | $1,408,004 | $1,051,850 | $356,153 |
| Source: State of Utah Financial Disclosures[22] | |||
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Spencer Cox |
Phil Lyman |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights[23] | June 20–21, 2024 | 432 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 55% | 42% | 2%[b] | 1% |
| HarrisX[24][A] | June 4–7, 2024 | 477 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 62% | 25% | – | 12% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[25] | April 8–16, 2024 | 283 (RV) | ± 5.8% | 51% | 4% | 9%[c] | 36% |
| Dan Jones & Associates[26] | January 16–21, 2024 | 428 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 50% | 3% | 11%[d] | 37% |
Results
[edit]Convention
[edit]| Republican convention results | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate/Running mate | Round 1 | Round 2 | ||||||||||
| Votes | % | Votes | % | |||||||||
| Phil Lyman/Layne Bangerter | 1663 | 44.24% | 2495 | 67.54% | ||||||||
| Spencer Cox/Deidre Henderson | 1085 | 28.86% | 1199 | 32.46% | ||||||||
| Carson Jorgensen/Corrine Johnson | 970 | 25.80% | Eliminated | |||||||||
| Scott Robbins | 21 | 0.56% | Eliminated | |||||||||
| Sylvia Miera-Fisk | 20 | 0.53% | Eliminated | |||||||||
| Inactive Ballots | 2 ballots | 4 ballots | ||||||||||
Debate
[edit]| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||
| Cox | Lyman | |||||
| 1 | Jun. 11, 2024 | Utah Debate Commission | Carolina Ballard | YouTube | P | P |
Primary
[edit]
Cox
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
Lyman
- 50–60%
- 70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Spencer Cox (incumbent) Deidre Henderson (incumbent) |
232,164 | 54.40% | |
| Republican | Phil Lyman Natalie Clawson |
194,639 | 45.60% | |
| Total votes | 426,803 | 100.00% | ||
Aftermath
[edit]Lyman later sued, claiming that the Republican convention was responsible for selecting the party's nominee and that the primary was illegal. The Utah Supreme Court rejected his argument.[28] Lyman later announced that he would run as a write-in candidate.[29]
Cox has since backed Trump after an assassination attempt made during a rally on July 13, stating in a letter: "Your life was spared. Now, because of that miracle, you have the opportunity to do something that no other person on earth can do right now: unify and save our country."[30] Cox also stated in a later news conference: “I am doing everything I can to help and support him...We will still have lots of disagreements, I’m sure, and we’ll still do everything we can to help the state of Utah and help the Republican Party be successful.”[31]
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Brian King, state representative from the 23rd district (2009–present) and former Minority Leader of the Utah House of Representatives (2015–2023)[32]
- Running mate: Rebekah Cummings, director of digital matters at the University of Utah[33]
Endorsements
[edit]Brian King
Political parties
Libertarian Party
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- J. Robert Latham, attorney, nominee for lieutenant governor in 2012, and nominee for Utah's 2nd congressional district in 2020[35]
Independent American Party
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Tommy Williams, perennial candidate and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022[35]
- Running mate: Archie Williams, heavy equipment operator and perennial candidate[35]
Independents
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]Other candidates
[edit]Republican write-in
[edit]- Phil Lyman, state representative[36]
- Running mate: Natalie Clawson[35]
General election
[edit]Debates
[edit]| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic | Libertarian | Write-in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||||
| Cox | King | Latham | Lyman | |||||
| 1 | Sep. 11, 2024 | Utah Debate Commission | Jason Perry | YouTube | P | P | P | N |
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[38] | Solid R | July 13, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[39] | Solid R | July 14, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[40] | Safe R | June 4, 2024 |
| RCP[41] | Solid R | July 13, 2024 |
| Elections Daily[42] | Safe R | July 12, 2023 |
| CNalysis[43] | Solid R | August 17, 2024 |
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of October 14, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Spencer Cox (R) | $2,415,468 | $3,782,382 | $158,370 |
| Brian King (D) | $632,080 | $651,962 | $24,436 |
| Source: State of Utah Financial Disclosures[22] | |||
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Spencer Cox (R) |
Brian King (D) |
Robert Latham (L) |
Tommy Williams (I) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights[44] | October 25–28, 2024 | 695 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 43% | 26% | 3% | 3% | 18%[e] | 6% |
| HarrisX[45][A] | October 15–19, 2024 | 813 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 19% | 3% | 4% | 2%[f] | 22% |
| 61% | 21% | 4% | 7% | 6%[g] | – | ||||
| Noble Predictive Insights[46] | October 2–7, 2024 | 539 (LV) | ± 4.22% | 54% | 26% | – | – | – | 20% |
| 49% | 23% | 2% | 2% | 5%[h] | 19% | ||||
| 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 26% | – | – | – | 21% | ||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[47][B] | September 27–28, 2024 | 612 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 32% | – | – | – | 23% |
| 35% | 24% | 3% | – | 19%[i] | 18% | ||||
| Lighthouse Research[48][C] | August 29 – September 4, 2024 | 518 (RV) | ± 4.31% | 48% | 27% | 7% | 4% | 8%[j] | 5% |
| HarrisX[49][A] | August 2–9, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 56% | 17% | 4% | 6% | – | 17% |
| 59% | 19% | – | – | – | 22% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |
|
781,431 | 52.89% | −10.09 | |
| Democratic |
|
420,514 | 28.63% | −1.72 | |
| Write-In |
|
200,551 | 13.57% | N/A | |
| Libertarian |
|
41,164 | 2.79% | −0.73 | |
| Independent American |
|
27,480 | 1.86% | +0.09 | |
| Independent |
|
5,792 | 0.39% | N/A | |
| Write-In |
|
525 | 0.04% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 1,477,457 | 100.00% | |||
| Republican hold | |||||
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Would not vote" with 2%
- ^ Scott Robbins with 4%; Sylvia Fisk with 3%; Carson Jorgenson with 2%
- ^ Scott Robbins with 5%; Sylvia Fisk and Carson Jorgenson with 3%
- ^ Lyman (Write-in) with 15%; "Refused" with 3%
- ^ Tomeny (I) with 2%
- ^ Tomeny (I) with 6%
- ^ Lyman (Write-in) with 5%
- ^ Lyman (Write-In) with 19%
- ^ Tomeny (I) with 2%
Partisan clients
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the Deseret News and the University of Utah
- ^ Poll sponsored by Brian King's campaign
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Utah Debate Commission.
References
[edit]- ^ "Utah Governor Election Results 2024: Cox vs. Smith King". The New York Times. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 7, 2024.
- ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
- ^ "Party control of Utah state government". Ballotpedia. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
- ^ "Utah 2020 presidential election results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
- ^ "Utah 2020 gubernatorial results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
- ^ "Utah governor becomes latest to veto transgender sports ban". Politico. March 22, 2022.
- ^ Samuel Benson (February 15, 2024). "Utah Gov. Cox: Republicans making 'a huge mistake' if they nominate Trump". Deseret News. Retrieved June 24, 2024.
- ^ Hannah Schoenbaum (June 12, 2024). "Utah governor defends record in primary debate after harsh reception at GOP convention". AP News. Retrieved June 24, 2024.
- ^ Brigham Tomco (April 27, 2024). "Phil Lyman beats Gov. Spencer Cox at Utah GOP convention. Both advance to primary". Deseret News. Retrieved June 24, 2024.
- ^ Bridger Beal-Cvetko (June 25, 2024). "Spencer Cox cruises to win in GOP primary; Phil Lyman says he won't concede". Deseret News.
- ^ Katie McKellar (June 25, 2024). "AP calls race for Utah Gov. Spencer Cox, but Lyman won't concede". Utah News Dispatch.
- ^ a b McKellar, Katie (April 21, 2022). "Are Utah Republicans mad at Gov. Cox for transgender veto? Let political chips fall, he says". Deseret News. Retrieved April 25, 2022.
Cox has said he does intend to run for reelection in 2024.
- ^ a b c d e Schott, Bryan; Anderson Stern, Emily (April 27, 2024). "Beat at GOP convention, Gov. Cox tells delegates: 'Maybe you just hate that I don't hate enough.'". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved April 27, 2024.
- ^ Price, Carlysle (May 4, 2024). "Phil Lyman announces Natalie Clawson as selection for lieutenant govornor". KSL-TV. Retrieved May 4, 2024.
- ^ Emily Stern (May 3, 2024). "Judge says Phil Lyman's running mate stays off Utah Republicans' primary ballot — has days to find a new one". The Salt Lake Tribune.
- ^ Schott, Bryan (April 25, 2024). "Carson Jorgensen taps Utah Parents United founder as GOP running mate in 2024 gubernatorial race". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved April 25, 2024.
- ^ Aertz, Lindsay (September 20, 2023). "Jason Chaffetz not closing the door, not actively pursuing 2024 run for Senate or governor". KSL (radio network).
"That's not something I'm planning to do, challenging Governor Cox is not in my plans," he said of 2024. But he said he is keeping his eye on a possible 2028 run for Utah governor.
- ^ "Are Jason Chaffetz or Robert O'Brien planning to run for office in Utah?". February 21, 2023.
- ^ Tomco, Brigham (August 27, 2023). "The most powerful Utahn you've never heard of could be America's next vice president". Deseret News. Retrieved September 5, 2023.
- ^ Hanson, Libbey (January 23, 2024). "Riley Gaines Speaks at the U, Endorses Lyman for Governor". The Daily Utah Chronicle. Retrieved January 23, 2024.
- ^ "Vote Lyman to Lead!". Eagle Forum. Retrieved June 3, 2024.
- ^ a b "Public Search". State of Utah Financial Disclosures.
- ^ Noble Predictive Insights
- ^ HarrisX
- ^ Noble Predictive Insights
- ^ Dan Jones & Associates
- ^ "2024 Primary Election Republican for Governor". Retrieved July 6, 2024.
- ^ Gehrke, Robert (August 13, 2024). "Utah Supreme Court rejects Phil Lyman's bid to kick Gov. Spencer Cox off the ballot and out of office". Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved August 15, 2024.
- ^ Stern, Emily Anderson (August 12, 2024). "After losing GOP primary, Phil Lyman will run as a write-in candidate for Utah governor". Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved August 15, 2024.
- ^ Sullivan, Kate (July 19, 2024). "Utah Republican Gov. Spencer Cox pledges Trump his support after saying last week he wouldn't vote for him". CNN. Retrieved August 12, 2024.
- ^ Sentner, Irie (July 19, 2024). "Utah governor, a longtime Trump skeptic, offers endorsement after assassination attempt". Politico. Retrieved August 11, 2024.
- ^ Bojórquez, Kim (December 4, 2023). "State Rep. Brian King to run for Utah governor in 2024". Axios. Retrieved January 5, 2024.
- ^ Hudson, Vanessa (April 29, 2024). "Democrat Brian King picks University of Utah librarian as his gubernatorial running mate". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved April 29, 2024.
- ^ Bates, Suzanne (April 28, 2024). "Utah Democrats endorse Brian King for governor, Caroline Gleich for Senate at state convention". Deseret News. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
- ^ a b c d e f g "2024 Candidate Filings – Utah Voter Information". vote.utah.gov. Retrieved January 9, 2024.
- ^ Stern, Emily Anderson (August 13, 2024). "After losing GOP primary, Phil Lyman will run as a write-in candidate for Utah governor". The Salt Lake Tribune. Archived from the original on August 14, 2024. Retrieved August 14, 2024.
- ^ McKellar, Katie (September 10, 2024). "A Republican, Democrat and Libertarian qualify for Utah's gubernatorial debate • Utah News Dispatch". Utah News Dispatch. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
- ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Governor Races". www.realclearpolling.com. Retrieved July 16, 2024.
- ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
- ^ "Governor Forecasts". CNalysis. Retrieved August 17, 2024.
- ^ Noble Predictive Insights
- ^ HarrisX
- ^ Noble Predictive Insights
- ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
- ^ Lighthouse Research
- ^ HarrisX
- ^ "2024 Utah General Election". enhancedvoting.com. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 25, 2024.
External links
[edit]Official campaign websites